XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 10 wraps up with two of the league’s best teams facing off as the Eagles visit Green Bay. This game has a 45.5 point total with the Packers favored by 1.5, and it should be a really interesting game as both teams are on top of their respective divisions. We have a close spread and two good defenses, so odds are this game remains close throughout. The odds of a blowout are always present (it’s a football game after all), but most paths in this one have it remaining within 1 or 2 scores.
GREEN BAY
On the Packers side of things, Josh Jacobs has one of the best roles in the league. For the first five weeks of the season, Jacobs played no fewer than 65% of the snaps and handled 20+ opportunities in every game. He picked up a calf injury that he played through, which dropped his snap rate down in the 50s and his touches to 14, 16, and 22, but he should be over that (practiced in full this week with no injury tag), and I expect he’ll go back towards the role he had at the start of the year. The Eagles D has been better against the pass than the run, and with Tucker Kraft hurt (more on that later) and Jordan Love struggling without him, it seems likely to me that Green Bay will lean more heavily on their bell cow back in this matchup. Emanuel Wilson at $2,600 is a reasonable “RB2 in Showdown” type, though just note his increase in touches and snaps lately is likely due to Jacobs’ calf injury. I expect he’ll go back down, and while at $2,600 he’s still viable, he might be getting a bit overprojected here based on his last three games. I’ll have him in my player pool, but if what I’m seeing around the industry holds up, he’s likely to be very chalky as most projection services have him as far and away the best cheap play on the slate (and one of the best overall point per dollar plays). We’ll have to see where his point projection lands closer to kickoff, but if it holds where I’m seeing it now (in the 5-7 DK point range across the industry), I’m probably going to shoot to be underweight at what I expect will be elevated ownership.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, oh boy, Tucker Kraft’s absence really hurts this offense. They’re only averaging 5.1 yards per play without Kraft, and Jordan Love has also been awful against pressure, ranking 33rd in the league in yards per attempt when pressured (reminder: the NFL has 32 teams). The Eagles have already been generating pressure at an above-average rate, and they just traded for Jaelan Phillips to help boost that rate. Now, it’s worth noting that how an offense plays without a key player, either in a few snaps per game (for a guy who rarely leaves the field like Tucker) or when losing a key guy to a mid-game injury, is different from how that offense might perform with plenty of time to game plan and prepare for the absence. I expect the Packers won’t be QUITE so bad as they’ve been without Kraft so far, as they’ll be able to prep for it, but it’s still a big loss. What they’re left with is Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson as clear top wide receivers, and then Matthew Golden and Dontayvion Wicks both look very questionable. Golden practiced in a limited fashion earlier in the week but then got a DNP on Friday; he’s apparently “fighting to play” per beat reporters, but who knows. Wicks returned to practice and got in several limited practices. I’d guess Wicks is more likely to play than Golden, but who knows. What’s important is that Kraft vacates a large role as he was clearly the top Packers pass catcher, and that really boosts Doubs, who is $8k and leads the team in target share with Kraft off the field. While we have to worry overall about the Green Bay passing offense, Doubs himself is in a good spot. Watson is going to be more volatile as a boom/bust play who operates on lower target volume. We saw a nice “boom” last week with a 52 yard reception, but we also only saw 4 total targets.
Golden, I guess, is likely to sit, as I just don’t see the Packers risking their prized rookie, and the Friday DNP makes me think it’s highly likely he’s out, but if he plays, I view him as extremely risky given the injury and, of course, how the Packers already rotate their wide receivers heavily. I don’t normally try to bet on diminished roles due to injury situations, but this one just feels likely to be a spot where he might play less than his normal complement of snaps. Wicks return should push Savion Williams back to the bench as they both primarily run out of the slot, and while Wicks is both cheap and talented, Philly has given up very little production to opposing slot receivers. I generally prefer attacking them on the perimeter. If Golden ends up sitting, Malik Heath could play more, as he’s a direct perimeter receiver backup. He’ll still play behind Doubs and Watson, but with how the Packers rotate guys, I could see him playing ~50% of the snaps at $3k. I wish he was cheaper. Doubs is the clear top guy here, then Watson, then Wicks, then Golden if he plays.
At tight end, the role will be split between Luke Musgrave and John Fitzpatrick, with Musgrave the favorite to lead in snaps and routes. Philly has been extremely good against tight ends, and Musgrave is already priced up because we’ve known all week that Kraft is out, while Fitzpatrick is a dart throw who has just 5 targets on the year.
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