XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
The season is approaching its end, plus the holidays, which gives us extra Showdowns! On Saturday, the Eagles travel to Washington for a 44.5 total game with Philly favored by 6.5. On the one hand, we have a reeling Commanders team that had Super Bowl aspirations entering the season but has had everything go wrong, especially Jayden Daniels being hurt for most of the year, while the Eagles are looking for a repeat but have looked off on offense all season. Their 9-5 record overlooks an offense that has scored a below-average 22.9 points per game (after putting up 29/game last year), but their defense has been absolutely elite. The Commanders defense has been bad – the Eagles are likely to score, the question is if Marcus Mariota can keep up.
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In the Washington backfield, Chris Rodriguez is off the injury report and will be returning from a 1-game absence. Over the last few games, Rodriguez has been acting as the lead back, playing 41-45% of the snaps but only seeing 16, 12, and 10 opportunities in those games (all losses, but two of them were losses by a single score – not situations where game script punished him). With only two receptions all year, Rodriguez is a 2-down back who comes with game script risk and little access to a high-touch ceiling, even if the game stays close, and a mediocre matchup to boot. Jacory Crosky-Merritt should mix in, but is unlikely to be the starter. It is a weird spot, given that he’s the only Commanders RB to reach 18 opportunities (which he’s done twice), and he ran last week at 5.3 yards per carry, but in the previous three games, the Commanders started Rodriguez over him. Jeremy McNichols will also play primarily in a 3rd down/hurry-up offense role.
This is a really murky backfield. JCM and Rodriguez have both been treated as the starter this season, and while I’d guess Rodriguez moves back into the starter role because he had it for three weeks prior to his injury (and JCM didn’t even start last week – McNichols did, but was extremely ineffective on the ground), JCM was the starter earlier in the year. The Commanders should really be in a “let the young guys play” mode to conduct talent evaluation. The smart thing for Washington is to let JCM start, but it’s unclear if they’ll be smart. You could take shots on at what I expect will be very low ownership, but it’s a highly contrarian play. McNichols might be the best on-paper RB play on Washington, given his low price and passing game role.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, we have what is likely to be a low-volume offense. Mariota has started seven games and has attempted more than 30 passes just once (though it was a nice 50!) despite being 5-2 in those games. With tight end Zach Ertz on injured reserve, at least we have a high degree of confidence in where those targets will go: Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel should see large target shares. Both of them are talented and have big play upside, but are constrained by mediocre QB play and modest volume (though without Ertz, they did combine for 9 of 19 pass attempts last week – a healthy target share between them). The Eagles pass catchers on the other side will out-project them materially, making going heavier Commanders a contrarian tournament option, but as both of these offenses can be very low volume through the air, the difference in performance can easily just come down to who finds the end zone. I have a slight preference for Deebo here, as the Eagles have consistently clamped down on opposing WR1s while allowing WR2s to beat them (close to the lowest fantasy output per game allowed to opposing WR1s but almost the highest to WR2s).
WR3 Noah Brown was hurt (again) last game – poor guy – leaving Jaylin Lane and Treylon Burks to split WR3 snaps. Last time without Brown but with McLaurin, Burks played 66% of the snaps while Lane played 39%, but this looks like a volatile situation that could easily flip in any given game. Most projection sites around the industry have Burks projecting for a little bit more production at a lower price, but it’s a narrow gap, which has me interested in playing the ownership game and going overweight on Lane. At tight end, John Bates and Ben Sinnott will split the role, but both are primarily blockers (they each only saw one target last week), and this is one of the worst matchups for tight ends. They’re just dart throws as the wide receivers should command most of the passing volume.
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