Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- Philadelphia clinched the NFC East last week and is basically guaranteed to be either the #2 or #3 seed in the NFC playoffs.
- Eagles WR A.J. Brown had his wisdom teeth removed this week, which has held him out of practice. He is expected to be available on Sunday, but it is a situation to monitor.
- The Bills run defense has had major issues all season and Saquon Barkley has run for over 100 yards in two of his last three games.
- Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen suffered a foot injury in Week 16, but was able to finish the game.
- The Bills running game went wild against the Browns, with James Cook and Ty Johnson combining for 150 total yards and three touchdowns.
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How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
The Eagles took the scenic route on their way to a Week 16 victory over a depleted Commanders team as they clinched the NFC East title for the second consecutive season and third time in the last four years. Washington led the game until deep into the third quarter, before Philadelphia scored touchdowns on three straight possessions to secure the victory. The Eagles are two games ahead of the current NFC South leading Panthers, meaning they are almost assured to be no worse than the #3 seed, while also being two games behind the NFC West leading Seahawks, meaning they are also almost assured to be no higher than the #2 seed. The Seahawks and Panthers play in the early window on Sunday, which means by the time the Eagles game starts this week there is a chance they are 100% locked into that #2 or #3 seed window if Seattle wins. Considering they are coming off a long Super Bowl run and have had a lot of health and chemistry issues this season, preserving their players and calling the game in a certain way might come into play for the analytically minded Eagles.
The best way to beat the Bills all season has been on the ground, as they have been destroyed by several teams throughout the year. Buffalo has surrendered over 180 rushing yards six times this season and ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and 28th in PFF run defense grade. They generally play “lighter” personnel, which is a big part of their elite pass defense, but power running games have given them fits. At full strength, the Eagles would be in a great spot to get things going. However, they have two all pro offensive linemen – tackle Lane Johnson (foot) and guard Landon Dickerson (illness) – who did not practice Wednesday or Thursday this week. Johnson seems highly unlikely to play, while Dickerson probably suits up but has missed time at other points this season as well. Saquon Barkley was able to post a nice game last week and has gone over 100 rushing yards while averaging over six yards per carry in two of the last three games. Barkley now has three 100-yard rushing games this season and they came in his three matchups with bottom-tier run defenses of the Commanders, Giants, and Raiders. This is a perfect matchup for him to be a focal point once again, but the questions on the offensive line make his success less of a “sure thing” than it would be at full strength. We could also see backup Tank Bigsby be more involved in a run-heavy game plan as the Eagles won’t sit Barkley in this game, but could be proactive in limiting the overall volume he sees.
The Bills are a very good pass defense and are well schemed and complex in what they show to opposing quarterbacks, while the Eagles run a relatively simple and vanilla passing offense that relies on their guys “winning” matchups and Jalen Hurts being able to see guys open before he throws it, rather than using timing and anticipation to throw them open. Buffalo ranks 21st in blitz rate and is more than happy to drop players into coverage and doing so in this matchup will surely give Hurts fits. The Bills scheme and approach will likely lead to a very conservative underneath passing attack for the Eagles, regardless of the status of top wide receiver A.J. Brown – who had his wisdom teeth removed this week. Brown tends to dominate against man coverage due to his physical prowess and ability to win individual matchups along with the willingness of Hurts to throw it his way and trust him to win if he knows it is a one-on-one situation. The nature of this matchup is likely to mean greater involvement for DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert.
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