XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
No Dallas game on the main slate to pull ownership this week, as they play on Monday, visiting the Raiders for a 49.5 total game in which the Cowboys are favored by 3.5. Dallas has been one of the league’s best offenses but have significant home/road splits (29.2 points per game overall, 4th in the league, but 24.4 on the road – still good, but no longer elite), and while the Raiders offense is only scoring 15.4 points per game (yikes), going up against the Dallas “defense” has been good for what ails every team, as they’ve allowed no fewer than 22 points in any game (and that was to the Jets) while averaging 30.8 points per game against them on the season (2nd worst in the league).
DALLAS
Javonte Williams is not exactly an elite running back, but he’s sure been in an elite spot. The Cowboys are happy to give him bell cow workloads as he’s averaging 19.3 opportunities per game (including just shy of 4 targets). On one of the league’s best offenses, that’s resulted in elite production. We always need to check our biases with running backs – scoring is (much) more a function of role and team environment than it is about the running back’s individual talent. The role and team environment for Javonte are elite, as Dallas doesn’t really have a trusted RB2, so he should see just about all of the touches as a high-total team. The matchup isn’t ideal as the Raiders have been more vulnerable to the pass than the run, but that’s really the only knock against Javonte. He’s a rock-solid play. Behind him will be…uh….I’d guess it’s Phil Mafah coming off of IR, but it could be Malik Davis, or maybe they’re willing to give Jaydon Blue another shot. One of those guys. They’re all very thin. I’d guess Mafah.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, CeeDee Lamb is a monster. He’s only had five healthy games, but he’s scored 14.6 or more DK points in all of them with at least 8 targets and at least 74 receiving yards in every game. He has a minimum of 8 targets and is averaging over 10. Dude’s bonkers. He’s my clear favorite skill position play (yes, over Javonte). WR2 George Pickens is finally seeing his price dip back down to normal ranges after having some games without CeeDee. With CeeDee, Pickens has yet to reach the 100 yard receiving mark. He certainly could here, as the matchup is great against a bad Raiders secondary, and he’s a solid option, but in a vacuum, I’d prefer Lamb even at $1,800 more. WR3 is a rotation with Ryan Flournoy, KaVontae Turpin, and Jalen Tolbert all getting snaps. Tolbert looks to be trending the wrong way, while Flournoy is trending up, and Turpin seems pretty steady as a WR3/gadget guy type. Flournoy’s role has the most upside as he played 67% of the snaps in last week’s blowout while Turpin and Tolbert both played far fewer. In a competitive game, I think it’s closer but would still lean Flournoy as the best option, then Turpin (who at least comes with a material discount from Flournoy), then Tolbert (who I’m not even sure would make my player pool at all). All of these guys are hard to play as this offense really focuses around the main guys, and I would not play more than one of them on the same roster.
At tight end, Jake Ferguson is a PPR and touchdown machine; however, this matchup does not favor him as the Raiders have largely eliminated opposing tight ends. An elevated price of $7,400 hasn’t yet fully adjusted back down after Lamb has returned, leaving Fergy as a contrarian tournament option who definitely needs a touchdown to pay off (and could even need 2, depending on the rest of the scoring). He’s just a little too expensive for me to be excited about him, given the matchup (and especially given who he’s priced next to – hint, hint). TE2 Luke Schoonmaker has 15 targets on the season, which at $1,600 is okay, so he’s a viable dart throw.
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