Cowboys (

26) at
Lions (

29.5)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 14 kicks off with the Cowboys visiting the Lions for a huge 54.5 total game with Detroit favored by 3. The huge news, of course, is whether or not Amon-Ra St. Brown will play. He’s questionable, I’d guess more on the doubtful side, but the Lions did rule out Kalif Raymond yesterday without ruling out ARSB, which implies they’re thinking there’s at least a chance he can play. Especially with Raymond out, if ARSB misses, it spreads a lot of additional opportunity around. I’m going to write this as if he misses, but I’ll touch on below how to think through the Lions if he plays as well. The Lions are also a team expected to contend for the Super Bowl, and at 7-5, they’re in danger of missing the playoffs entirely, so they’re going to be going all-out here. 

DETROIT

On the Lions side, they’ve really been turning the backfield over to Jahmyr Gibbs, who has played his three highest snap counts of the season in the last three games, playing between 70-74% of the snaps and handling 20, 27, and 24 opportunities. The knock on Gibbs has always been about volume. As in the past, he’s rarely reached the magic 20 touch mark we prefer to see from our running backs in fantasy, but he’s gotten there five times this season overall and in each of the last three games, which is a good sign. With Detroit desperately needing this win, I’d expect them to lean heavily on Gibbs, and that’s doubly true if ARSB misses. Dallas’ run D is significantly better with the trade addition of Quinten Williams, but it’s still not great, and Gibbs is talented enough to smash in any matchup, plus he gets a lot of receiving work. I’m not sweating the matchup, and Gibbs deserves to be the most expensive skill position player in this game. With Gibbs surging, poor David Montgomery is getting left behind a bit with opportunity counts of 7, 8, and 10 in those three games that Gibbs has seen his snap count spike. Given that Monty has 10+ touches in all other games except one this year, that’s a material decrease in his workload. Combined with his price being at 7,000, one of the highest points in the season, it’s hard to get excited about Monty here. You’re playing him for what I’d expect to be modest ownership and the hope that perhaps with no ARSB the Lions line up Gibbs more as a receiver while having both backs on the field, though in real life that happens quite rarely (and we didn’t see it last week once ARSB got hurt, either). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we can expect Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa to be full-time players with Tom Kennedy filling in a part-time role. Jamo just set career highs in catches and yards last week with no ARSB and would again be a smash play here, priced up only to $8,400 and in one of the best possible matchups. His profile makes him volatile, but he’s just way too cheap for his role sans ARSB – expect massive ownership, but he’s a strong play regardless. TeSlaa and Kennedy are both a bit shakier. Last week, TeSlaa saw just 2 targets and Kennedy saw 4, and it’s a good reminder that sometimes when a primary guy gets hurt, most of the missing volume just gets spread around the remaining primary guys instead of backups taking on big roles. That’s certainly possible, and I view both of these guys as volatile. They’ll be on the field a lot, but that isn’t a guarantee that they’ll be earning targets. They’re still both cheap with TeSlaa at $4k and Kennedy at $2k, so at least they haven’t been priced up too much, and of course, the matchup is just about perfect. Between the two, I’d prefer TeSlaa, though Kennedy does have some floor to his game – he was the direct fill-in for ARSB, so he ran short, high catch rate routes with an 8-yard aDOT, while TeSlaa has more per-target upside with a 15.8 yard aDOT, albeit far fewer targets. My expectation, though, is that with a week to prepare for life without ARSB and Raymond that TeSlaa has more involvement – he’s a very talented rookie who Detroit should see as a key part of their future, while Kennedy is an undrafted free agent who’s been in a bench or practice squad role on the team for years but is really “just a guy.” Consider TeSlaa a legitimate, all-around ceiling play, while Kennedy is more of a solid floor but perhaps questionable ceiling value option.

At tight end without Brock Wright and with Sam LaPorta still hurt, Ross Dwelley stepped into a large role, playing 75% of the offensive snaps while Anthony Firkser played 24%. Wright was reported as likely dealing with a long-term injury, so even though he’s listed as questionable, I’d guess he’s much more like doubtful, and I’d be surprised if he plays. When LaPorta went out, Wright saw significant passing game involvement, with 7 and 4 targets. But last week, we only saw Dwelley get 3 targets while Firkser had 1. Still, though, I’d actually guess Dwelley’s likeliest outcome is pretty close to Kennedy’s, but I’d also guess that limited output last week may result in projections significantly favoring Kennedy and thus ownership being much on him as well. If Kennedy projects for high ownership and Dwelley for low, I’d flip those two in my personal exposures. 

DALLAS