Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- QB Jayden Daniels upgraded to a full participant in Thursday’s practice, indicating he could return against the Vikings after missing the previous three games.
- WR Noah Brown (IR, groin/knee) practiced in full in both practices through Thursday and appears ready to return for his first game since Week 2.
- RB Aaron Jones (shoulder) was limited in both practices so far this week and should continue to play through injury, something he has done for much of the season.
- QB J.J. McCarthy practiced in full on consecutive days, indicating he is likely to return from one missed game due to a concussion.
- This game carries an intriguing upside case. I’ll leave it at that here and let you experience the journey below.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How WASHINGTON Will Try To Win ::
There is a lot to unpack with the exploration of how the Commanders are likely to approach this game, largely influenced by the numerous changes in personnel we expect in Week 14. I’m going to write this one up as if Daniels returns from injury, Terry McLaurin sees a slight uptick in involvement in his second game back, and Brown makes his first appearance since Week 2. Within that structure of expectations, the next thing to consider are the defensive tendencies from Flores’ Minnesota defense, who lead the league in blitz rate (43.8%) and two-high utilization (66.4%). The Commanders have been mostly unable to establish any consistent trends due to the multitude of injuries they have dealt with this season, but the general structure of a Kliff Kingsbury offense involves horizontally spread concepts, quick passing mixed with man/gap rush concepts on the ground, and situational downfield passing within the flow of the game. Pair those tendencies with the tendencies from the Minnesota defense and we should see the quick passing game utilized as an extension of the run, with those same downfield attempts within the flow and structure of the game.
The Washington backfield has been a modicum of mediocrity for much of the season, at least as far as the fantasy value is concerned, with no back emerging as the clear lead option amongst Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremey McNichols, and Chris Rodriguez. Of note there is that JCM has been largely filtered out of the offense with Rodriguez the primary early-down back and McNichols functioning as the clear passing down and two-minute back the previous two games. A Kingsbury offense is always going to prioritize the run, meaning it should come as no surprise that the offense is averaging the third-most rush yards per game this season (138.9) while averaging 4.9 yards per carry. However, it’s just that the production is now split between four primary players – the three backs and Daniels.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Let’s bring the attention back to the matchup. Run-funnel, inside funnel, outrageous blitz rates, and league-leading two-high utilization. Those push the expectations of aerial volume to two primary places through the air: Deebo Samuel and tight end Zach Ertz. The ultimate volume for those two pieces ultimately depends on how the game plays out considering how the Commanders are likeliest to approach the game from a game-planning perspective, but there are clear paths to elite volume for both players. There is also a path for McLaurin to cash in on a deep shot or two, although his snap rate is likely to remain sub-optimal here. The reintroduction of Brown into the offense, if he plays, is also likely to give them their primary secondary manipulator back, which should serve to loosen up the interior of the defense. A lot of this is speculation and “reading the tea leaves,” but that is kind of what we’re left with considering there are so many moving pieces here.
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