XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Showdown aficionados are just loving the NFL right now as we get more and more International games, which means more and more Showdowns. This week, we have the Commanders and Dolphins playing in Madrid, Spain (an NFL first!) with a 47.5 team total, and the Dolphins, interestingly, are favored by 2.5 points. It’s not often that the 3-7 Dolphins have been favored this season, especially against a team that made the playoffs last year (and even knocked out the Lions!), but the Commanders are also 3-7 and have been something of a dumpster fire without Jayden Daniels. This could be one of those ugly game shootouts between two bad teams who can’t stop much on defense, or it could be a situation of “bad offenses are bad and do bad things.”
MIAMI
I doubted De’Von Achane last week to my detriment (though to be fair, all the data backed me up) as he put up 174/2 on the ground and 6/51/0 through the air on 28 total running back opportunities. Roughly 100 yards and the 2 scores (and my GPP lineups dying) came on 2 giant runs at the end of the game, as otherwise the Bills had bottled him up for roughly ~70 yards on 20 carries. This is a perfect example of Achane in a nutshell: good defenses can certainly stop him (and let’s remember he’s still only put up two really good scores in 10 games), but he can also break free and score from anywhere at any time. His robust passing game role (5+ targets in all but two games) boosts his floor as he’s scored no fewer than 12.8 DK points in a game this season. On main slates, he’s the kind of highly volatile player I tend to stay away from at high ownership, but on a Showdown slate, he has the highest floor/ceiling combination of any player in this game. He’s also extremely expensive and will probably be the highest owned player in the game as well. On paper, he’s the best play, but games aren’t played on paper. Do what you will with this info…you can make a case for fading the highest owned player in a Showdown because football is volatile, or you can just say, “he’s the best play, I’m playing him and will differentiate elsewhere.” At RB2, Ollie Gordon appears to have lost his job, playing just 3 snaps with 1 carry last week as Jaylen Wright handled 5 carries on 10 offensive snaps. There isn’t a lot of workload to go around here behind Achane, but if you’re going to play into this spot, Wright looks like a better bet than Achane.
In the passing game, Jaylen Waddle has looked the part of a real alpha since Tyreek Hill was hurt. In six games, he has 82+ receiving yards in five of them with 3 touchdowns and 14.2 or more DK points (the sixth game was a disaster against Cleveland in which the Dolphins lost by 25 points, so I’m willing to throw that one out). He’s largely been getting there on modest volume with target counts ranging between 6-9 in those games, but he’s also caught a 24+ yard pass in all of those games – something that wasn’t really part of his game when playing alongside Tyreek. He’s finally been priced up to where he should be at $10.6k, which adds a little extra risk to his profile given the most volume, but the Miami offense has really just revolved around Waddle and Achane, and that’s about it. Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are splitting WR2/WR3 work (with the Dolphins also running a lot of heavy personnel sets with a fullback) – their snaps have ranged from the 60-70% mark to around the 50% mark. Target volume for Washington has ranged from 3-5 targets per game, mostly short area stuff (he only has 1 catch over 20 yards on the year), while NWI has mostly been running empty routes with just 13 targets in the six post-Tyreek games. Washington’s price has finally crept up to appropriate levels, and at his season-high $6,200 salary, I’d view him as a bit overpriced for his role. The offense really leans on Achane + Waddle, and then the Commanders are most vulnerable to deep passing, which hasn’t really been how Washington has been used. NWI is a dart throw, as is Cedric Wilson, who has played between 22% and 32% of the snaps in the last three games, but with just 2 targets to show for it. At the bare minimum $200, I think Wilson is worth some exposure in tournaments because he lets you build some really strong lineups, but just be aware his floor is literally zero.
At tight end, Julian Hill is off the injury report and should be making his return, while Tanner Conner has been sent to the practice squad, leaving Greg Dulcich and Hayden Rucci as their other tight ends. I expect Rucci will barely play, and he doesn’t even have a target on the year anyway, so he can probably be left alone. Hill is not a very exciting pass catcher, but he does have a game of 5 targets on the year, and he’s averaged 3.3 targets/game since Tyreek was hurt, so he at least has some semblance of floor. At $1,600, he’s a reasonable floor-but-little-ceiling value option. Dulcich is the more talented pass catcher of the tight ends, and while his snaps are uncertain, he has a lot more upside per target when on the field. I like him, as I’m hopeful that Hill’s return will keep people off of him. He’s risky but has some actual ceiling for his salary.
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