WFT (

26.5) at
Cowboys (

28)

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Washington looks to bounce back on a short week from a Monday night loss to the Bears, which they handed away in the fourth quarter.
• The Commanders have scored 24 or more points in four straight games, while the Cowboys have allowed all six of their opponents to score at least 24 points this season.
• Washington may be without their top two wide receivers, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel Sr., in this game.
• Commanders running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt seems to have taken control of the backfield and has an elite matchup against the Dallas run defense.
• Dallas welcomes back their own star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who has resumed practicing and will return from his high ankle sprain this week.

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How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders enter Week 7 on a short week after their Monday night debacle against the Bears that ended with them fumbling the game away in wet conditions and letting a previously dormant Bears running game steamroll them. Washington was the Cinderella story of the NFL in 2024 as Jayden Daniels rookie season seemed to see everything break right for the Commanders and everything fell into place en route to their run to the NFC Championship game. This year, however, Washington has been battling injuries, variance/luck, and their own self-inflicted issues, which have led them to this point with a 3-3 record and a difficult upcoming schedule. The next three games for Washington after this week are against the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Lions – three of the stronger teams in the NFL at the moment. This game is highly critical for the Commanders for many reasons, and with their upcoming schedule, they need to take care of business in a very winnable divisional game.

Washington has a fairly neutral pass rate so far this season, even with Daniels missing multiple games. The Commanders running game has been very solid this year, ranking 10th in rushing offense DVOA, 11th in adjusted line yards per carry, and 8th in PFF rushing grade through six weeks. They have done this despite a rotating cast of running backs who most would classify as replacement level talents. Among those backs, rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been the strongest of late and broke out in a big way two weeks ago against a struggling Chargers run defense for 111 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The matchup on the ground this week is a ripe one against a Dallas defense that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA, 32nd in PFF run defense grade, and has surrendered an *AVERAGE* of 184 yards per scrimmage to opposing RB1s over the last three weeks – with all three backs accumulating at least 155 total yards. JCM set a season high in playing time at 66% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 6 despite a first quarter fumble. Considering his last two games consist of an elite breakout performance and an expanded role, this matchup with one of the league’s worst run defenses is one that he is likely to have a lot of opportunities in, and where we should expect him to be successful in those opportunities.

When they do pass, Daniels has an average depth of target that is slightly greater than the league average, as he is fully capable of throwing the deep ball. Daniels has been back for two games since his return from his knee injury. In those two games, Daniels faced the Chargers in a spot where Washington was in control and he was not asked to do much through the air and then faced the Bears in a sloppy and wet weather game. He started to look like the guy we all expect to see on Monday night, averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt, throwing three touchdown passes, and rushing 10 times for 52 yards. Dallas blitzes at a below average rate, but has surprisingly generated the second highest rate of QB pressure in the NFL, as they have pressured opposing QBs on 31.8% of dropbacks this season. Daniels has elite pocket presence and mobility, while the Cowboys lack elite athletes and pass rushers to finish the job – Dallas has only 11 sacks through six games despite their high rate of pressure. This creates a situation where they may be able to force Daniels off his spot often in this matchup, but they are likely going to struggle to contain his rushing ability and could give up some broken plays downfield once he gets outside the pocket.

As for the players who will catch the passes, that is the biggest question mark for Washington this week. Star receiver Terry McLaurin has missed the last three games due to a quad injury and after being a limited participant in the team’s Wednesday walk-through, he did not practice at all on Thursday, making it seem unlikely that he will be available for this game. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel Sr. has been the team’s top receiving option this season, but was a game-time decision to be active Monday night and ended up having his worst game of the season. He has missed both practices to start the week as well. The most reliable remaining receiving option for Daniels will be veteran tight end Zach Ertz, who has a tremendous connection with Daniels and is likely to be a regular target against the Dallas zone defense. Dallas has surrendered stat lines to opposing tight ends with clear TE1 roles of 9 receptions for 67 yards (Mason Taylor), 5 receptions for 56 yards (Tucker Kraft), and 7 receptions for 44 yards (Dallas Goedert). Ertz will be busy in this one assuming both McLaurin and Deebo are out. The rest of the receiving corps becomes interesting for this matchup as the starters would likely be veteran Chris Moore, second year receiver Luke McCaffrey, and explosive rookie Jaylin Lane. Moore is clearly an X-receiver and plays on the perimeter running field stretching routes. Prior to Monday night, he had not produced much of anything despite extensive playing time. Lane is explosive and dynamic and can line up at multiple spots, while McCaffrey profiles most effectively as the slot receiver and could eat in this matchup if Deebo is out. If Deebo plays, that would likely result in McCaffrey and Lane rotating snaps as they did on Monday night. The Dallas defense started the season being burned by the deep ball over the first four games, but had that deficiency masked by facing Justin Fields and Bryce Young the last two weeks. Jayden Daniels is one of the best deep ball passers in the league and is likely to connect on multiple deep passes in this one, especially given the likelihood that Dallas is unable to create sacks.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::