Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- The Colts lost starting QB Daniel Jones for the season with an achilles injury last week and will either be starting high school football coach Philip Rivers or unpolished rookie Riley Leonard this week.
- Indianapolis has lost four of their last five games after a 7-1 start to the season and is barely holding onto a playoff spot, with a daunting schedule remaining.
- This is a matchup between the league’s top run defense, Seattle, and the league’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor.
- Play volume could be muted in this game as both teams lean heavily into the run.
- The Colts will once again be without top cornerback Sauce Gardner in this game, which alters the scheme and effectiveness of their coverage.
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How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::
Talking about the rest of the Colts season prior to this seems like a bit of a fool’s errand after they lost Daniel Jones for the season in Week 14. They will be rolling with the raw and unproven rookie Riley Leonard or 44-year old Philip Rivers who has not played football since 2020. Seattle has arguably the league’s best defense and has been dominant at home when facing questionable offenses, so this sets up as close to the toughest possible matchup for Indianapolis this week. The Seahawks’ dominant performances have come against teams with below average running games, however, which gives a glimmer of hope to the Colts.
It should be fairly obvious that the Colts will be giving the ball to all pro running back Jonathan Taylor as often as possible in this matchup, despite Seattle being the league’s best run defense. The Colts offensive line ranks sixth in the NFL in adjusted line yards per attempt and Taylor has 974 yards AFTER CONTACT this season. To put that in perspective, only seven running backs in the NFL have more total rushing yards than what Taylor has after contact. Simply mind blowing. When the Colts do pass, it will likely be focused on the short areas of the field and quick first and second reads regardless of who they have under center. Rivers struggled with arm strength and his quirky delivery late in his career and it is now a half decade later, while Leonard is very raw as a passer and will certainly be confused by an elite defensive scheme in Seattle. In theory, Rivers should know where he needs to go with the ball but is likely to be late or physically unable to get it there at the right time, while Leonard has the arm to make some of the necessary throws but won’t know the right time to be pulling the trigger. This should result in almost no downfield throws for the Colts as long as they can stay somewhat in the game, which more or less will result in Alec Pierce doing a lot of cardio on the perimeter. However, tight end Tyler Warren and wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs should see high target rates on short passes. None are elite after the catch and the Seahawks are elite at tackling, so their volume will likely be very empty, but we can have a very good idea of how the Colts will approach this one. They may actually throw the ball at a high rate on first down to set up second and third downs of five yards or less, with the idea that in those less predictable situations JT has a greater chance of breaking off an explosive run. When it is all said and done, the Colts will need JT to have a massive performance and to limit their overall passing volume to have a chance in this one.
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