Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Daniel Jones was listed as a full participant on Wednesday’s practice report but we know he continues to deal with a fracture in his left fibula – more on this below.
- CB Sauce Gardner (calf) did not practice on Wednesday. This one is important for how an absence would likely influence recent changes in defensive tendencies for the Colts.
- Jaguars WR Parker Washington (hip) did not practice Wednesday after suffering the injury in the second half of their Week 13 game.
- The Colts averaged 32.1 points per game in their first 10 games, scoring fewer than 29 points only twice in that span. With Daniel Jones playing through a fracture in his fibula the previous two games, they have scored just 20 and 16 points while running 51 and 50 offensive plays.
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How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::
A week after running just 50 offensive plays against the Chiefs, the first game where quarterback Jones was dealing with a fracture in his fibula, the Colts ran just 51 offensive plays against the Texans. There was a play on their first possession last week in which Jones clearly looked like he wanted to climb the pocket and evade pressure but was unable to plant and accelerate forward, eventually resulting in a sack where he was taken to the ground while hopping on his right leg (would not plant his injured left leg). That emphasizes what I saw from him on film from the week prior. He started last game playing almost entirely from shotgun before getting back under center on their third possession, which was when the Colts started moving the football effectively. We spent a long time last week talking about why that is so important for a team that utilizes as much play action and RPO as the Colts, both of which are going to suffer if Jones can’t be under center at a meaningful frequency due to his injury. To me, the fact that the Colts scored 20 and 16 points their last two times out after scoring fewer than 29 only twice in their first 10 games has way more to do with Jones’ health and what it means for the structure of this offense than it does their opponents in those games.
The team’s desire to “throw to score, run to win” also comes under fire with the injury to Jones. It isn’t as simple as them just airing it out at an increased rate in the first half and coasting to victories, it’s a function of all the pieces of this offense working together to keep opposing defenses off balance. They are largely unable to accomplish that task with Jones playing through a clearly painful fracture to his left fibula, which limits their ability to utilize key components of the offense, like play action and RPO, at the rates they would otherwise like should Jones be more comfortable under center at similar rates to where he was at pre-injury. Which is to say, I am much more hesitant to view this offense anywhere close to the level we did for the first 10 weeks of the season when they averaged 32.1 points per game and were sitting at an 8-2 record.
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PFP the OWS pennant
Furthermore, the high after the recent addition of cornerback Sauce Gardner was short-lived after he came down with an injury in Week 13, which is likely to force them back into heavy rates of Cover-3 and away from the heavy rates of man coverage they had used while holding the Chiefs to 23 points and Texans to 20 points. I’m spending so much time dissecting this stuff because of what it means for Jonathan Taylor, knowing that he had scored 30 or more DK points in six of his first 10 games before peaking at just 15.1 in the two games since the team’s Week 11 bye. He will remain a legitimate workhorse in this offense, but he takes a sizeable hit if the offense is not going to be as efficient as it was with a healthy Jones. And then there’s the matchup against a Jaguars defense that is forcing the highest PROE (pass rate over expectation), fewest rush attempts per game, and just 3.9 yards per carry this season.
The Colts do not utilize 12-personnel, instead focusing on 12 and 11. 12 typically comes via the injections of veteran tight ends Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree, with rookie Tyler Warren joining veteran wide receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce as the three players to see near every-down action. Josh Downs operates in a near slot-only role, with snap and route-participation rates at the mercy of the team’s 12-personnel rates. We know what Pierce is to this team, as his role has not changed during the previous two-plus seasons, now boasting the third-deepest aDOT in the league (19.6), of players to run more than 100 routes this season. Pittman remains largely confined to the middle of the route tree with an aDOT of 8.8, while Warren operates primarily in the short area of the field, with heavy emphasis on quick hits behind play action or RPO. The Jaguars present a deep-outside and intermediate-middle funnel defense against the pass, most commonly exploited via stretching them in the vertical. That points directly to Pierce and Warren yet again this week.
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