XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has the Chiefs visiting the Giants for a 45 total game with Kansas City favored by 6. That gives the Chiefs an implied team total of 24.75 points, something they have yet to accomplish this year and only reached eight times during the regular season (not including one OT game) last year. They are also facing one of the toughest defenses in the league and they’re on the road. I don’t normally bet sides and totals, but I took an under on the Chiefs team total here.
KANSAS CITY
Kansas City’s backfield is currently split with Isaiah Pacheco in a slight lead and Kareem Hunt hanging around 40% of the snaps. Pacheco only has 15 carries through two games (yikes) to go along with 5 targets, while Hunt has 13 carries and 4 targets. Hunt has the only touch from either RB inside the 10-yard line this year. It’s really tough to put up strong scores as a running back averaging 10 or fewer touches per game when the team is going pass-heavy when they get in close (Mahomes has six pass attempts inside the 10). While I do think that Chiefs running backs will turn in useful games at some point this season, all of the data points we have reflect this being a tough spot. Pacheco is priced to where he’ll need to do more than fall into a touchdown to hit, whereas Hunt could pay off with an end zone trip and not much more, so that’s the way I’d lean here. I’ll still have Pacheco in my player pool, but with fairly modest exposure.
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In the passing game, the Chiefs are currently running out Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton, who are combining for almost all of the wide receiver snaps. Jason Brownlee is playing a very modest role and can be considered an extremely thin punt. So far, we’ve seen 21 targets for Brown (including 16 in Week 1), 8 for Juju, and 9 for Thornton. Brown has the safest floor of the group as well as the highest ceiling, as he’s the only one who really has a reasonable path to double-digit targets. At $8,400, he’s a bit underpriced for that kind of role, even with a tough matchup, and projects as one of the stronger skill position plays on the slate. JuJu is awfully cheap for a WR2 who’s playing so many snaps, but his per-target upside is extremely modest with a 6-yard aDOT. If he scores a touchdown or finds his way to a spike in targets, he could pay off, but odds are he’ll need an end zone trip to do it. Thornton plays the deep role and it’s a REALLY deep role with a 31.6-yard aDOT so far (lol, #1 in the NFL). He’s accounted for 49% of the Chiefs total air yards through their first two games. He’ll need to catch a long one to pay off, but unlike JuJu he can pay off in a single catch. He’s a volatile option but projects as a solid value and his ceiling is awfully high for his salary.
At tight end, we have Travis Kelce, who is, unfortunately, clearly in the tail end of his career. He has 10 targets on the season with an aDOT of 6.1. His profile is basically the same as JuJu’s, except he’s more useful after the catch and his red zone role is bigger. He’s also 8k. The price is somewhat prohibitive for his current role. He belongs in player pools because he can still find ceiling games from time to time, but he’s a tough sell as a primary piece. TE2 Noah Gray is not that far behind Kelce in snaps and routes. I prefer both Thornton and JuJu but he’s a viable cheap option, and then if you’re really desperate, you can hope Robert Tonyan sees his first target of the year (he’s been on the field and he’s minimum salary, and he’s not really a blocking TE, so at some point he’ll get a target or two).
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