Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- A yearly tradition of this AFC rivalry between two of this era’s dominant quarterbacks comes at a time when both offenses are hitting their stride.
- Bills running back James Cook is having a career year and has 20+ PPR points in five of seven games this season.
- Kansas City WR Rashee Rice has a 28% target share during his two games back from suspension.
- The Chiefs have scored 28+ points in five straight games, while Buffalo has scored 30+ points in five of seven outings this season.
- Buffalo has won the last four regular season matchups between these teams, while Kansas City has won the last four playoff matchups.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How kansas city Will Try To Win ::
The Chiefs last two games they have won by a combined score of 59-7 as they seem to be hitting their stride after a rocky start to the season. That being said, those games came against a Raiders team in complete disarray and a Commanders team playing without their QB, Jayden Daniels, who is the heart of what they do and the primary reason they are usually able to compete with stronger teams. The Raiders game was a dominant game from start to finish and never really in doubt, but the Commanders took the Chiefs to halftime tied 7-7 prior to the Chiefs systematically taking them apart after the intermission. That two game sample is mostly relevant because that is when Chiefs WR Rashee Rice returned to the lineup. Rice has had a dominant role in the offense since his return and has not missed a beat, with 23+ PPR points in both games and a target share just below 30%.
Kansas City leads the NFL in pass rate over expectation by a relatively large margin this season, as Patrick Mahomes is operating with one of the deepest and most talented receiving corps of his career. Mahomes has also been more aggressive this season, as his 7.4 average intended air yards per pass attempt through eight games is significantly higher than the 6.2 yards he averaged in the same metric last season. Simply put, Mahomes is passing at a very high rate (per usual) but is pushing the ball downfield much more frequently and deeper than he has over the past couple of years when he operated as more of a souped-up game manager. Mahomes is completing 67% of his passes and has a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio. Simply put, he’s been cooking this season.
This week more than most, we should expect the Chiefs to lean heavily on Mahomes. The Chiefs are likely to be without starting RB Isiah Pacheco due to a sprained MCL he suffered on Monday night, which will leave veteran Kareem Hunt and rookie Brashard Smith as the primary ball carriers. Hunt is solid in short yardage and dependable, but not a player they are going to turn to heavily despite the solid on-paper matchup against the Bills shaky run defense. Smith is explosive and can make plays in space, but the team has not shown a ton of trust in him to date and while he should get some chances this week it once again comes back to this being a high leverage game against an opponent the Chiefs will expect to need to score points against – so Mahomes is their best option.
As for how Mahomes will operate, his primary target is Rice at this point and the team will work to get him the ball in a variety of ways. He is a solid short to intermediate target and works the middle of the field well, while being terrific with the ball in his hands after the catch. The Chiefs even gave him a “Wildcat” snap on Monday night, and are not afraid to use him on screens, jet sweeps, and other gadgety plays to take advantage of his skill set. The other primary receiving options are TE Travis Kelce, who is coming off a huge game, and WR Xavier Worthy. Kelce is no longer the dominant player he once was, but the return of Rice has opened things up for him quite a bit. Kelce thrives on finding openings when Mahomes extends plays and also benefits from the elite play design of Andy Reid which gets him free a couple of times per game it seems. Meanwhile, Worthy’s weekly production is not as dependable with Rice back on the field but he will undoubtedly break off a huge play one of these weeks as teams can’t key in on him.
Buffalo’s run defense ranks 30th in the NFL in DVOA, but a lot of that has to do with some very poor performances against physical, run-oriented teams like the Ravens and Falcons. Outside of those two games, they have actually held up pretty well. They did, however, lose defensive tackle Ed Oliver for the season due to a torn triceps which will hurt their run defense and their interior pass rush. Expect the Chiefs to use the running game just enough to make things easy on their passing game. Mahomes should be busy early in this one and the Chiefs are likely to be aggressive from the outset, as they will want to jump out ahead of the Bills so that Buffalo can’t rely on their own dominant running game and so the Chiefs don’t become predictable and one-dimensional – which would allow the Bills to mask their huge deficiency up front.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.