Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RB Hassan Haskins has not practiced this week (as of Thursday) with a hamstring injury.
- TE Chig Okonkwo went from limited Wednesday to DNP Thursday with a foot injury.
- WR Calvin Ridley (hamstring) remains sidelined, having not practiced since Week 7 preparations.
- Small sample alert, but Gunnar Helm has notched a 0.26 TPRR, 2.22 YPRR, and 0.44 FP/RR against Cover-3 and Cover-4 shells since Week 6 (without Calvin Ridley), and the Chargers run those coverages on almost 60% of their defensive snaps.
- The Chargers rank fourth in PROE, but Justin Herbert attempted only 25 and 27 passes in the two games the Chargers truly controlled this season.
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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Chargers are currently fourth in PROE while averaging 25.4 rush attempts (22nd) and 37.5 pass attempts (second) per game. But that doesn’t tell the whole picture, and here’s why. The Chargers have really only controlled two of their games this season: a 37-10 beatdown of the Vikings in Week 8 and a 20-9 defensive stalwart effort against the Raiders in Week 2. They have allowed 20 or more points in each of their other six games. In those two comfortable wins, quarterback Justin Herbert attempted just 25 and 27 passes versus 43 team carries and 26 team carries. We could then reason that the expected aerial volume would be much less than current projections if the Los Angeles defense is handling business, as they should in this matchup.
We could then take that one step further and say that Kimani Vidal handled 23 carries in a similar game environment to the one we expect here against the Vikings, in a game played without Hassan Haskins (trending towards missing Week 9). Adding to that, from a likely-scenario perspective, is the fact that the Titans have allowed opponents to run at the third-highest rate over expectation this season, behind only the Jaguars and Raiders, while facing 29.1 rush attempts per game (tied for sixth most). Vidal has handled a 64% snap rate or higher in each of the previous three games without Omarion Hampton and stands to benefit the most from the combination of matchup, expected game flow, and absence of Haskins. The Titans have allowed 4.9 yards per carry (26th) behind the second-most yards allowed before contact per attempt (2.78), making this a pristine matchup for Vidal on paper.
Tre’ Harris is the best blocking wide receiver on the roster, which helps to explain why and how he remains so involved in the offense. He has led the team in snaps at the wide receiver position in two of the previous three games. Furthermore, the team had a miniature come-to-Jesus moment three weeks ago and stopped messing around with Tyler Conklin and Will Dissly at tight end, instead feeding rookie Oronde Gadsden a featured role in the offense. All he did with that bump in usage was amass a team-leading 309 yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets during that span. The truth of the matter is that Gadsden allows the offense to stress more areas of the field while giving opposing defenses yet another weapon to account for, combining with Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, and the backfield to generate mismatches all over the field. And offensive coordinator Greg Roman is having an absolute field day recently, averaging 30 points per game during that stretch after cracking 23 points only once in the team’s first five games. The Titans are in zone at the league’s seventh-highest rate this season, against which Allen (0.28 TPRR, 2.37 YPRR, and 0.58 FP/RR) and Gadsden (0.22 TPRR, 3.37 YPRR, and 0.60 FP/RR) handily lead the team (McConkey ranks third in all three metrics with 0.17 TPRR, 1.33 YPRR, and 0.26 FP/RR).
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