Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Chargers enter the postseason as one of the more banged-up teams in the league, probably only outdone by the Packers.
- RB Omarion Hampton did not practice Wednesday due to his ankle injury, indicating his absence from the lineup in Week 18 was much more than simply a player resting.
- OLB Bud Dupree (hamstring), LB Del’Shawn Phillips (hamstring), and S Kendall Williamson (ankle) were also absent Wednesday. S Elijah Molden (hamstring) was listed as limited while CB Benjamin St-Juste was not listed on the injury report.
- And then there’s the team’s offensive line, which continues to be without both starting offensive tackles and now has backup Jamaree Salyer on the injury report. C Bradley Bozeman should return from his concussion for the playoffs.
- The Patriots appear to be getting healthy at the right time, with the only player listed as a ‘DNP’ Wednesday for any reason other than an illness being DL Khyiris Tonga (foot).
HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::
It has really been a tale of three seasons for the Chargers this year. They started the year ranked first in pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the first four weeks before injuries began to pile up along their offensive line. They then went through Weeks 5-11 with a pass-balanced approach after Omarion Hampton’s injury in Week 5, with an offense focused on utilizing the pass as an extension of the run, emphasizing the short areas of the field due to the injuries to their offensive line. They remained down their top two offensive tackles to finish the season in addition to other injuries to both their center and one guard but got back Hampton in Week 14, ranking 18th in PROE between Weeks 14 and 17 before resting starters for their final regular-season game. Quarterback Justin Herbert attempted 32 passes or fewer in each of those final four games – a 22-19 win over the Eagles, a 16-13 win over the Chiefs, a 34-17 win over the Cowboys, and a 20-16 loss to the Texans. In fact, Herbert has not attempted more than 33 passes in a game since Week 7. Consider the Chargers a run-balanced team with a propensity to take a more reserved offensive approach due to a defense holding opponents to the ninth-fewest points per game (20.0). That said, those tendencies could get thrown on their head should Hampton be unable to suit up after missing practice Wednesday due to an ankle injury. He is reportedly set to practice Thursday “in some capacity,” meaning I would expect him to also play “in some capacity” Sunday.
Hampton started the season by seeing a 79% snap share or higher in three of his first four games before being injured in Week 5. He then worked his way back into game shape slowly upon his return, culminating in an 81% snap rate in Week 17, before being held out with other starters in the regular-season finale in Week 18. A missed practice to start preparations this week hinted that his ankle injury was more serious than was initially relayed, making it less likely he sees another borderline workhorse role in the Wild Card Round. That said, a full showing Friday could shift those thoughts more towards a robust role, something we’ll need to pay attention to as the weekend draws nearer. Either way, the pure rushing matchup is far from ideal against a Patriots team holding opponents to 4.2 yards per carry (13th) and 19.9 DK points per game (seventh). Kimani Vidal is on hand to soak up any work Hampton can’t carry, while Jaret Patterson would be the player to serve in a change-of-pace role in the unlikely event Hampton can’t go entirely.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Another circumstance that altered the team’s approach during the season was the emergence of rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden, who took on an increased role in Week 6 before bursting onto the scene in Week 7 with a massive 7-164-1 effort. As we’ve discussed previously this season, his breakout has come at the expense of Keenan Allen, considering an overlapping role. Allen primarily operates as a key down specialist in this offense now, confined to third downs and the two-minute drill. Rookie receiver Tre’ Harris is the best run-blocking option at wide receiver, something that has kept his role in the offense tangible throughout the season. The team’s tendencies between Weeks 14 and 17 probably give us the best fidelity regarding how we expect them to behave in the postseason, during which time Ladd McConckey (87.2% route participation) and Quentin Johnston (80.2%) were the only two pass catchers to be in a route on more than 66% of the team’s dropbacks (Gadsden), with Allen (62.4%) and Harris (46.3%) rounding out the primary contributors. Tyler Conklin feel almost entirely out of favor following the return of Will Dissly, the latter of whom has transitioned back to a primary blocker after being asked to run more routes last season (lowly 16.8% route participation in that final four-week sample). The Patriots filtered additional work to the intermediate middle of the field this season considering the elite-level play from their secondary, which appears in the stats via an increased rate of production given up to opposing tight ends.
