Chargers (

22.75) at
Jaguars (

20.25)

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• The Chargers continue to put together a wildly impressive season as they enter Week 11 with a 7-3 record despite massive injury issues.
• Jacksonville is coming off an embarrassing fourth quarter collapse and has been falling apart in recent weeks.
• The Jaguars expect to get Brian Thomas Jr. back this week and should have newly acquired WR Jakobi Meyers up to speed for this matchup.
• This week sets up well for the Jaguars running game, which has been more efficient than their passing game and faces a relatively weak Chargers run defense.
• Kimani Vidal will once again operate as the workhorse running back for the Chargers as they head into their Week 12 bye.

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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers have quietly been one of the more impressive stories of the 2025 NFL season as they have battled significant injury adversity, yet have a 7-3 record and are clearly in contention at the top of the AFC as we head into the second half of the season. Los Angeles is playing without both of their starting tackles, who are elite caliber players at their positions, and has had other injuries up front throughout the season as well. They also lost rookie running back Omarion Hampton for several weeks right when he was hitting his stride, although they will likely get him back after their Week 12 bye. Not only did they lose Hampton, but the next two backs on the depth chart to start the season have missed significant time as well. Through all of it, quarterback Justin Herbert has been the guiding force that has steadied the ship through rough waters. The Chargers actually have two very impressive national TV wins in their last three games, beating the Vikings 37-10 and the Steelers 25-10 – two strong organizations and very well coached teams.

Los Angeles ranks second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation this season. They are a team that is willing to run the ball when game script calls for it and has had some success doing so in some spots, but the games where their rushing production excelled has mostly been in games they won handily and they have gotten there on volume rather than consistent efficiency. In the Chargers two convincing wins over Minnesota and Pittsburgh, running back Kimani Vidal handled touch counts of 24 and 26, respectively. The matchup this week is not daunting for the running game, but the Jaguars are slightly better against the run than the pass and the Chargers offense revolves first and foremost around their passing game with running the ball being a complementary and game script driven aspect of their offense.

Justin Herbert has been playing at an elite level this season. Despite the chaos around him, this team just keeps producing. The running backs have not been overly involved in the passing game in recent weeks since the emergence of rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden. Second year wide receiver Ladd McConkey has started performing at his expected levels in recent weeks and has 20+ PPR points in three of his last five games and has led the team in targets in four of the last five games. McConkey and Quentin Johnston are nearly full-time players, with veteran Keenan Allen and rookie Tre Harris splitting time as the third receiver. Top receiving options for opponents have been destroying the Jaguars recently, as they have given up huge games to Nico Collins, Brock Bowers, Davante Adams, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba over their last four games. They are pretty solid on the perimeter and blitz at a top-10 rate, which should force the ball out quickly for Herbert with his offensive line injuries. Everything about the matchup seems to indicate that McConkey and Gadsden will be busy as the primary options in the best matchups in this spot, with Keenan Allen also in a good spot but with slightly less volume. Expect Herbert to come out throwing and focused on getting the ball out quickly to his slot receiver and tight end with a relatively high level of success.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::