Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WR Quentin Johnston was limited x2 through Thursday with the same groin injury that cost him Week 15. WR Tre’ Harris was also limited in both practices this week through Thursday.
- WR CeeDee Lamb has yet to practice this week with an illness, which I have to assume is the same nasty flu that ripped through my house the previous two weeks. I would expect him to go come Sunday.
- Keep an eye on the status of RB Javonte Williams through the weekend. Williams departed the team’s Week 15 loss to the Vikings with a neck injury but return in the second half to finish the game out.
- T Tyler Guyton remains sidelined with an ankle injury.
- CB DaRon Bland has yet to practice this week with a foot injury. The hits keep coming for the Dallas secondary.
- The Chargers are fighting for playoff seeding, with everything from the No. 1 seed to missing the playoffs still on the table.
- The Cowboys need to win their final three games and have the Eagles lose their final three games to reach the postseason.
- Omarion Hampton has seen an opportunity on a ridiculous 66% of his offensive snaps since returning from injury in Week 14. There is significant upside here if his snaps increase after playing on 36% of the team’s offensive snaps or fewer in his first two games back.
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How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::
The Chargers started their season with an extreme emphasis on the pass, ranked at the top of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) through the first seven weeks. They have cooled off with the pass-heavy nature of their offense in the second half of the season, ranked just 16th in PROE since Week 8, including games of negative PROE in each of their last three contests since their Week 12 bye. I think it is likelier that we see 40 team rush attempts than 40 pass attempts from Justin Herbert here, with a likeliest scenario leading to 30-32 pass attempts and 30-35 team rush attempts. That is a significant departure from how this team started the season.
Hampton returned from injured reserve in Week 14 and has been held to 36% of the offensive snaps or fewer in two games back, leaving Kimani Vidal to operate in a “lead back-minus” role. That is phrased as it was due to the touch splits between the two backs, with Hampton handling 15 opportunities on 23 offensive snaps in his first game back, to the 15 opportunities on 51 offensive snaps of Vidal. That trend continued last week, with Hampton handling 16 opportunities on 24 offensive snaps to the 13 of Vidal on 42 offensive snaps. It is clear who the lead back is in this backfield, regardless of how many snaps each player is currently playing. That leaves room for upside for Hampton should his snap rate grow at any point, which will likely come without much warning, maybe even as soon as in Week 16 against the Cowboys with the Chargers fighting for playoff seeding. That is also important due to the matchup against a Cowboys team bleeding production on the ground, now yielding 4.5 yards per carry, 26.0 DK points per game, and the third-highest explosive-run rate to opposing backfields this season. Hampton is the more efficient and explosive back of the two, leading the team with 4.59 YPC and a solid 7.4% explosive-run rate. Of particular intrigue are Hampton’s splits behind man/gap concepts, which he runs behind on over half of his carries this season. In that split, Hampton holds a 5.76 YPR mark and a 52% success rate, against which the Cowboys have allowed 4.71 YPC, a 53.5% success rate, and nine of their 13 touchdowns allowed this season. There aren’t many backs priced below 6k this week that carry legitimate 30+ point upside. Hampton is one of them.
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PFP the OWS pennant
The statuses of Quentin Johnston and Tre’ Harris likely bear significant weight to how the Chargers approach this game, in addition to what it would do to the expected target distribution should they miss. Johnston and Harris are the two primary perimeter options in the offense, with Ladd McConkey playing a hybrid role and Keenan Allen primarily a slot option at this point in his career. What we’ve seen in the second half of the season is tight end Oronde Gadsden eating into Allen’s role based on the significant overlap. I would guess we see KeAndre Lambert-Smith entering the starting lineup if both Johnston and Harris miss, so as not to change the established roles of McConkey, Allen, and Gadsden, but it takes some reading of the tea leaves here. In any case, Herbert attempted only 29 and 26 passes in their last two games, both coming in wins and in games with Hampton back in the fold. I would expect a similar structure if two of their top options at wide receiver are out. If both play, the team can operate as it normally would, with the potential for them to still bias their attack to the ground.
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