Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- QB Justin Herbert played on Monday night just seven days after having surgery on his broken left hand, leading the team in rushing in yet another game.
- RB Omarion Hampton returned in Week 14 from a seven-game absence.
- T Trey Pipkins missed practice on Wednesday as the Chargers continue to struggle through significant injuries to their offensive line.
- T Jawaan Taylor did not practice on Wednesday, and swing tackle Wanya Morris saw his season end in Week 14 due to a knee injury. The Chiefs are down three offensive linemen currently after G Trey Smith returned to practice on Wednesday.
- Both defenses rank in the top 10 in yards allowed per game and points allowed per game.
- The Chargers have won five of their last six, while the Chiefs have lost four of their last five, now finding themselves with only a slim 16% chance of making the postseason. Kansas City needs to win out and get some help to make the playoffs.
- Both offenses rank in the top 10 in PROE, although the Chargers rank 15th since Week 8.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Chargers currently occupy the No. 5 seed in the AFC at 9-4, two games behind the Broncos in both the division and for the No. 1 seed, and just one game ahead of the Texans and Colts in the battle for the No. 7 seed. Their four remaining games will put them to the test, with games against the Chiefs in desperation mode, the Cowboys in desperation mode, the Texans fighting for their playoff lives, and the Broncos fighting for the No. 1 seed. We’ve seen this team overcome numerous key injuries this season, primarily to their offensive line and backfield. They enter Week 15 with the same injury concerns up front, but got back rookie running back Omarion Hampton in Week 14 following a seven-game absence. The Chargers continue to rank in the top 10 in PROE, but that falls to 15th in the league since Week 8, averaging only 26.7 pass attempts per game in the second half of the season. A defense that has allowed 20 points or fewer to everyone but the Jaguars in that span (Vikings, Titans, Steelers, Raiders, and Eagles) has allowed them to be much more balanced despite the mounting injuries.
Hampton returned to a modest 31% snap rate a week ago, but handled 15 opportunities (13 carries and two targets) on 23 offensive snaps, getting in the end zone once through the air. I expect his snap rate to climb significantly in his second game back, potentially getting into the 50-60% snap rate range against the Chiefs. At the same time, he is unlikely to see an opportunity at a comparably high rate to what he saw in his first game back, which should smooth the volume expectation a bit. Expect a near-even split between him and Kimani Vidal, against a Chiefs defense ceding 4.1 yards per carry (13th) and 19.2 DK points per game (seventh) to opposing backfields this season. The Chargers have utilized a near-even split in zone and man/gap concepts this year, something that has remained consistent since Week 8, but have experienced much greater success behind man/gap. Of note there, Hampton saw only two of 13 carries behind man/gap in his first game back, serving more as a between-the-tackles grinder for the Chargers. There is not much here in the way of expected upside.
Rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden burst onto the scene for the Chargers in Week 6, which coincides with a decrease in utilization for veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen. As we’ve discussed previously with this team, it is really only Quentin Johnston that operates in a “standard wide receiver role,” with all of Ladd McConkey, Gadsden, Allen, and rookie wide receiver Tre’ Harris rotated throughout the formation as the team aims to generate mismatches around the field. McConkey has only two games since Week 6 with a snap rate over a modest 76%, while Allen has played over 60% of the offensive snaps only twice in that same span. Standout cornerback Trent McDuffie returned to a limited session on Wednesday for the Chiefs after playing just nine offensive snaps in their loss to the Texans a week ago, making it likely he does not miss time here. I would expect him to see a fair bit of Johnston on the perimeter, considering the structure of the Los Angeles offense, which leaves the remaining pieces as the likeliest paths for volume to accumulate. That gives McConkey the best chance to lead the team in targets, although he has not seen more than seven looks since Week 9, with the team averaging so few pass attempts per game in recent weeks. Nothing truly stands out on paper here beyond saying “McConkey should lead the team in targets.”
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.