Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WR Marvin Harrison Jr. did not practice Wednesday after missing Week 14 with a heel injury.
- RB Trey Benson was not activated from injured reserve at the expiration of his 21-day practice window, meaning his season is done.
- RB Emari Demercado returned to practice in some capacity (writing this before the full injury report is released from Arizona), indicating he is likely to return after three missed games.
- Both Woody Marks and Nick Chubb missed practice Wednesday for the Texans.
- The top spot from this game is the “Houston backfield,” with the uncertainties surrounding the health of both Chubb and Marks in the back of our minds as the week progresses.
- The Texans have run 70 or more offensive plays in four of their previous five games.
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How ARIZONA Will Try To Win ::
First off, there are numerous key injury situations to work through with the Cardinals. Head coach Jonathan Gannon told reporters Wednesday that Harrison’s heel issue is similar to that of Max Melton, who returned to practice after two missed games. That would seem to indicate that MHJ is in line for another absence against the Texans. Then there’s the state of the backfield. Benson will remain on injured reserve through the end of the season after he failed to be activated within his 21-day practice window, while Demercado returned to practice in some capacity Wednesday. Demercado missed time earlier this season, after which he returned to a roughly 40-60 timeshare with Bam Knight. Thusly, my broad expectations here are that the Cardinals will be without MHJ and the backfield will be a near-even split between Knight and Demercado. Beyond that, we know the Cardinals have largely been forced to the air since Jacoby Brissett took over under center, leading the league in pass rate, pass attempts per game, and pass rate over expectation (PROE) in that span. There is no reason to expect that to change against the league’s top defense this season.
As was discussed above, the likely return of Demercado doesn’t change much from an expected usage perspective for Knight, with the likeliest outcome being a massive cut in the usage for Michael Carter and an injection of Demercado into a likely timeshare. That is effectively what we saw in the two healthy games from Demercado that were played without both James Conner and Benson. That leaves us with a clear timeshare in a matchup against a Houston defense holding teams to 4.1 yards per carry and just 94.3 yards on the ground per game, while facing the third-fewest rush attempts per game at 23.2.
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One of the biggest issues within the broader setup for the Cardinals in this game is an expectation of elevated pass rates behind an offensive line down both starting offensive tackles, with a quarterback that has taken 29 sacks in eight starts, against a defense ranked sixth in sacks this season (36). That does not inspire a ton of confidence in their expected ability to move the football effectively here, and we could see numerous quick three-and-out drives from them. We know we’re likely to get extreme concentration in volume through the air on Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, but we have to question the individual upside against a Houston defense ceding the second-lowest completion rate (57.11%), the third-lowest yards per route run (YPRR) (1.25), the fourth-fewest yards after catch (YAC), the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Expect an uptick in 21-personnel usage through Elijah Higgins, while Andre Baccellia steps into the WR2 role and Jalen Brooks and Trent Sherfield share WR3 duties.
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