Cards (

22.75) at
Bengals (

29.75)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Cardinals handily lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and pass attempts per game with Jacoby Brissett under center. The Bengals rank sixth in PROE while averaging 35.2 pass attempts per game in Joe Burrow’s five starts. Pass volume should be plentiful here.
• S Budda Baker (thumb/concussion) and LB Josh Sweat (ankle/knee) have yet to practice for the Cardinals this week. Both appear headed for absences.
• WR Marvin Harrison Jr (heel) logged back-to-back limited sessions to begin the week, making it likely he avoided a setback last week. 
• TE Noah Fant (ankle) logged consecutive limited sessions through Thursday after missing Week 16.
• The most obvious starting point for a game stack in the history of DFS has got to be Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + Trey McBride, right?
• These are two of the bottom-four defenses in the league.

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How ARIZONA Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals have thrown caution to the wind in a lost season, with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing finally able to run an NFL offense with Kyler Murray sidelined. The team appears to be stuck between a rock and a hard place with Murray in that his future with the team remains uncertain but he is unlikely to generate significant buzz in the trade market this offseason. It remains to be seen what the future holds for this franchise, with the only certainty, in my mind, being that they are going nowhere fast with Murray under center. Snap back to the offense with Brissett at the helm and we’re actually seeing forward-thinking concepts and designs. Brissett is able to work under center, introducing the ability to utilize play action behind an offensive line decimated by injuries this season. Innumerable injuries to their backfield leaving a fifth-string, practice-squad player to lead the unit also doesn’t help things, nor do the key injuries they’ve experienced on the defensive side of the ball. Which is to say, we know what we’re going to get from the Cardinals to end the season, which includes extreme pass rates, an inefficient offense, and a defense that struggles to generate disruption.

The Cardinals are averaging just 17.5 running back carries per game in the 10 games started by Brissett this season. To say there is minimal upside with this unit is the understatement of the century. Season-ending injuries to James Conner, Trey Benson, and Bam Knight leave Michael Carter to lead the way, with Emari Demercado continuing to work his way back into game shape following three missed contests and something called Corey Kiner available for depth. As in, there is not really anything here to take advantage of a Cincinnati defense allowing the highest explosive-run rate and third-most yards per carry this season, other than simply saying the matchup might boost Arizona’s chances of sustaining drives early.

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PFP the OWS pennant

The premier matchup on the slate is likely McBride against a Bengals defense ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing tight ends and missed tackles this season. Harrison has played in five of Brissett’s 10 starts, with Michael Wilson’s underlying metrics dropping off precipitously in those contests. Wilson has accounted for a lowly 0.14 targets per route run (TPRR), 1.25 yards per route run (YPRR), and 0.24 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) with Brissett at quarterback and MHJ on the field, compared to 0.35 TPRR, 2.94 YPRR, and 0.64 FP/RR with MHJ off the field in that span. With all three of McBride, Harrison, and Wilson on the field with Brissett under center, it’s McBride that handily leads the team in all pass-catching metrics. The Bengals play a lot of single-high through elevated rates of Cover-3 and Cover-1, against which McBride boasts a solid-not-elite 0.46 FP/RR in the same split (Brissett under center and MHJ in the lineup). Considering the top piece of the Cincinnati defense is second-year cornerback DJ Turner, I would expect a heavy emphasis on McBride in this spot.

HOW cincinnati WILL TRY TO WIN ::