Cards (

21.25) at
49ers (

22.75)

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Arizona enters this game with a 2-0 record but has benefited from an incredibly easy schedule to date. 
• San Francisco continues to deal with injuries among their skill players as quarterback Brock Purdy and wide receiver Jauan Jennings are in doubt for this week. 
• The Cardinals defense sustained several injuries in last week’s victory over Carolina, which we will want to monitor leading up to kickoff. 
• Cardinals second year running back Trey Benson continues to have a meaningful role for the Arizona offense. 
• The role of star Arizona wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. continues to fluctuate and game script often makes him a non-factor completely.

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How arizona Will Try To Win ::

If you look at the standings, you will see a Cardinals team tied for the division lead. If you watched the games, you know this is a team that is extremely lucky to be sitting where they are. The schedule makers did Arizona a huge favor by giving them the Saints and Panthers to start the season. Both of those teams are consensus bottom-quartile NFL teams entering the year and haven’t done anything to prove that expectation wrong so far. Despite that soft opening, the Cardinals conservative approach and methodical style allowed both opponents to stay within striking distance and have opportunities to win late in the game. This week, Arizona gets by far their toughest test as they had to San Francisco to face a familiar foe. 

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The Cardinals will try to win this game by leveraging Kyler Murray’s dual-threat abilities. Last year in this same matchup, Murray set the tone for the game by busting off a 50+ yard rushing TD that gave Arizona a lead and helped them control the game script. There is no doubt that both teams will remember that, with Arizona looking to find a way to replicate it and the 49ers taking steps to ensure it does not happen again. In the passing game, we can expect the Cardinals offense to run primarily through tight end Trey McBride. However, the presence of All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner makes for a difficult matchup for McBride. The 49ers under Robert Saleh like to sit back in coverage and let their front four get pressure on the quarterback. They will almost certainly approach this game in that way while putting a “Spy” on Murray.  The Cardinals will also look to exploit mismatches against the 49ers’ potentially vulnerable secondary and may use short passes to move the chains and control the game clock on the road. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. was a non-factor against the Panthers after Arizona jumped out to a big lead, but this week he should be more involved as Arizona knows they will need a lot of points to pull off the win. One of the “surprises” for Arizona’s offense thus far has been a near-even split of the backfield work between veteran James Conner and explosive second year back Trey Benson. Expect the backfield to be busy in this one as Arizona is likely to be reluctant to push the ball downfield and the matchup for McBride may push more of the short area targets to the running backs.

This Arizona team is not one that actively tries to build big leads with aggression, but rather tries to play solid football and give themselves a chance in the fourth quarter. Occasionally, opponents will “beat themselves” with mistakes and fall behind Arizona – but as we saw last week with the Panthers nearly coming back from three scores down, the Cardinals lack of aggression tends to always keep their opponents in the game.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers rank second in the NFL in third down conversion percentage through two weeks, much of which is a result of them putting themselves in very manageable situations. This success has become common for San Francisco, as they have finished eighth or better in that category in each of the last three seasons. The presence of Christian McCaffrey certainly plays a large part in that as his rushing efficiency and versatility in the receiving game allows head coach Kyle Shanahan to be creative with his early down play calling. Likewise, CMC is often able to make something out of nothing and extend drives by converting first downs. The success of the 49ers offense over the last few years really is something to behold. They have been very good at creating chunk plays and explosives both in the running game and passing game, but have been able to do so while also converting third downs at a high rate due to prudent early down play calling. In this week’s matchup with the Cardinals, all of these things should come together nicely for San Francisco. 

True to form, the Arizona defense looks very similar this season to what we have seen in recent years. Their defense, under head coach Jonathan Gannon, primarily plays a unique “Quarters” zone coverage system, ranking as one of the league’s leaders in its usage, along with a high rate of Cover-2. This complex scheme uses three-high safety alignments and allows them to disguise their zone coverages effectively while occasionally using a five-man front. Arizona also blitzes at the sixth lowest rate in the NFL. Both of these tendencies are conservative in nature as the Cardinals often have a lot of bodies dropping in coverage and they place them in such a way with their coverages as to prevent explosive plays.

What this means for this week is the 49ers should have success in the short to intermediate areas of the field. They are likely to be without Brock Purdy for the second straight week and Jauan Jennings has added an ankle injury to his list of issues as he missed the first two practices of the week. The result will be another massive dose of Christian McCaffrey in what has historically been a very good matchup for his skill set. Arizona is reluctant to load the box and leave themselves vulnerable to deep passing, which opens up rushing lanes for the 49ers run scheme and also gives CMC opportunities to get the ball in space and make defenders miss. San Francisco got backup RB Brian Robinson Jr. involved in Week 2 as they look to somewhat manage CMC’s workload, and this should be another RB-heavy game plan. Look for second year wide receiver Ricky Pearsall to be heavily involved if Jennings is indeed held out, while veteran Kendrick Bourne could step in for some of the intermediate routes that Jennings would normally run. Arizona had five defenders leave Week 2 with injuries and at least three are in danger of missing this matchup. The 49ers offense itself is beat up, so this would amount to making it a level playing field if Arizona is missing some players. Regardless, the scheme and talent of the 49ers is such that they should have success in this spot.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan have historically operated at a slow rate, while this year’s Cardinals offense ranks 31st in the NFL in raw pace of play. The Cardinals offense lacks explosive plays, while the 49ers offense is missing at least two and possibly three of their main skill players (Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle for sure, maybe Jennings as well). Both defenses are well coached and disciplined, while playing primarily conservative zone coverages and blitzing at bottom-10 rates in the league. The summary of all of this is that these teams are likely to move methodically and have to sustain long drives in order to score points. The 49ers seemingly have the upper hand as their offensive scheme is much more adept at creating chunk plays, and their defense has a lot more playmakers and fewer injuries. Expect this game to be relatively slow-moving in the early going as these teams feel each other out while bleeding the clock. However, as things move along we should expect the 49ers to poke holes in the Arizona defense and break through for some big plays to give themselves a lead.