Bucs (

19.75) at
Texans (

22.75)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get two Monday Showdowns! The first has the Bucs visiting the Texans for a 42.5 total game with Houston favored by 2.5. The Texans are coming off a disappointing Week 1 that saw them score just 9 points against the Rams. To be fair, that’s one of the better defenses in the league, but still…yikes. Hopefully, coming back home will help them, but let’s also remember that Houston’s offense largely struggled last season after coming in with sky-high expectations following C.J. Stroud’s rookie season. The Bucs handled business against Atlanta, but it wasn’t all that pretty as Baker Mayfield completed just 53% of his passes for 5.2 yards per attempt while Bucky Irving only managed 2.6 yards per carry on the ground. Basically, both of these teams underperformed on offense in Week 1 (even though the Bucs escaped with a win), and they’ll both be looking to get things going in this one. 

houston

We’ll start with the Texans and their run game. They brought in Nick Chubb, and he played 51% of the snaps in his first game with his new team, handling 13 carries and 1 target. He ran reasonably well with his new team, but as a 2-down back with little passing game involvement, this is going to be a tough spot against a Bucs D that just bottled up Bijan Robinson on the ground and limited him to 2 yards per carry. Chubb also handled just 50% of the team’s overall rushing attempts (including Stroud’s) as they handed the ball off to three (seriously) different backs behind him and even gave a carry to wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson. In a difficult matchup and with this kind of backfield split, it’s hard to get very excited about Chubb, but RB1s always belong in Showdown player pools. I’ll play some, but I’m not thrilled about it. Dare Ogunbowale plays the passing down role while Woody Marks and Dameon Pierce each handled 3 carries last week (weird). Ogunbowale is the most playable of the backup RB’s given that he has a respectable receiving role, while the other guys are “hope for a touchdown or a Chubb injury” plays. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Stroud just threw for 7 yards per attempt against the Rams, passing for 0 touchdowns while throwing a pick and taking three sacks. Playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines and going up against one of the most blitz-happy teams in football, he’s going to be running around in this one. A lot. Last year, Stroud struggled immensely when dealing with pressure and the O-line meant he was pressured basically all game. We’ll have to see if they’ve figured anything out this year – one game is too early to make any determinations there. The Texans have apparently decided to play the deepest offensive roster in the NFL, as in addition to four running backs, ten different players saw at least 1 target last week, and that’s on just 27 pass attempts. WR1 superstar Nico Collins bafflingly only saw 5 targets. This is not a realistic way to run an NFL offense – you can’t spread the ball around this much and not get it to your best players – and hopefully that was all just a one-game aberration. The Texans are awfully thin on talent behind Nico, and so I expect that we’ll see his target share increase and he’ll be in for some big games. I really, really wish his Week 1 dud had done something to impact his price because it’s odd seeing him as the most expensive play in the game, but we know his ceiling is immense – he’s a clear overweight position to me given that there are a lot of other expensive plays on this slate, and that plus the Week 1 dud could keep his ownership a bit in check. Anything under 40% or so is a gift. Behind Nico, in order of snap counts, were Xavier Hutchinson, Justin Watson, exciting rookie Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel. Higgins actually led the team in receiving yards (with 32, lol), and we should expect to see his role grow as the season goes on, while all of those other names are just guys. They’re on the field, they could catch a touchdown and potentially pay off, but you’re just playing roulette with any of them. Higgins is the most talented of the other wide receivers, but he’s also $6,400 and only played 43% of the snaps last week; he has ceiling, but that’s a tough sell for me. I’d rather pay $1k for Watson or even $2.8k for Hutchinson.

At tight end, we have a bit of an odd situation. Dalton Schultz, who is a capable pass catcher, apparently lost the start to former 4th round pick (and not very good player) Cade Stover. They played roughly 50/50 and together saw 9 targets on 27 Stroud dropbacks. Stover, however, suffered a broken foot near the end of the game and is now on IR, which leaves Houston with Schultz and then Harrison Bryant (most likely) at tight end. I don’t know why they started Stover over Schultz, but I have to imagine Schultz is going to go up to a 65-70% snap count role at the least. At just $4,400, he’s underpriced for his talent and likely role and is one of my favorite options on the slate, while Bryant would be a viable punt at minimum salary (and it’s possible people might ignore him – maybe for whatever reason Houston has soured on Schultz, so maybe Bryant plays more than expected?). 

TAMPA BAY

The Deuce, Week 2

Strategy Ideas for Monday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Buccaneers – The Bucs will once again be without WR Chris Godwin and LT Tristan Wirfs for this game. In the season opener, Tampa Bay struggled to sustain drives and had limited play volume (56 offensive snaps compared to 63 per game in 2024), but we could clearly see a condensed offense. Running back Bucky Irving dominated the rushing usage while he combined with WRs Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Sterling Shepard for 24 of the team’s 29 targets. This week the Bucs face a Houston defense that was elite in 2024 and started the year strong against the Rams. The Texans run defense is very good and the Bucs struggled to get anything going on the ground in Week 1 without Wirfs, so this profiles as a game where Mayfield could throw the ball 40+ times.
• Texans – The Houston offensive line was remade in the offseason and the early returns are not great. Their rushing numbers looked OK in Week 1 (4.2 yards per carry), but only one of 22 attempts went for 10+ yards and many of the yards were “empty” yards that the Rams were conceding situationally. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud was under constant pressure and evading the pass rush all game. The team’s three scoring drives (all first half FG’s) were unimpressive – one took 13 plays to go 62 yards, one started in Rams territory, and one was aided by a Rams penalty and multiple scrambles by Stroud. Houston will look to bounce back by creating more chunk plays and having shorter third down situations after going 2/9 against the Rams.
• Chargers – The Chargers put a stamp on the 2025 season by handily beating the Chiefs in Brazil and the real story was that they led the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation in Week 1. Similar to the Bucs, this team has a condensed offense with three WRs (Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen) and a running back (Omarion Hampton) dominating their usage. That quartet combined for 28 of the team’s 34 targets in Week 1, while Hampton played 80% of the offensive snaps in his debut. Dollar for dollar, Hampton is probably the best role to salary value on the slate. Quarterback Justin Herbert played one of the best games of his career and looks like he is ready to have a huge year. The Raiders defense looked good in Week 1, but the Patriots lack the offensive firepower the Chargers have so this will be a telling matchup for both units.
• Raiders – Star tight end Brock Bowers missed the end of last week’s win over New England, but is reportedly on track to play. Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers are target hogs in this offense, combining for a 60% target share in Week 1 despite Bowers missing a large chunk of the game. Secondary receiving options WR Tre Tucker, WR Dont’e Thornton, and TE Michael Mayer are all interesting on a smaller slate. The Raiders had a whopping nine pass plays of 20+ yards in Week 1 against the Patriots, but that performance seems less impressive after watching New England give up 300+ passing yards to the hapless Dolphins on Sunday.

QB Thoughts::

• Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield are very clearly the top QB options on the slate over Geno and Stroud. Both have better supporting casts and better defenses on paper, but as we saw on Sunday’s “Afternoon Only” slate sometimes games go a different direction and QBs can fluctuate. Bryce Young led that afternoon slate thanks to the Panthers falling so far behind early and Young racking up massive volume, while Daniel Jones threw for over 300 yards and had a rushing and passing touchdown. Those two were the top QBs on that slate despite being the cheapest and lowest owned. This slate certainly feels different with Mayfield and Herbert seeming like strong bets in their situations and salary not being too restrictive, but I just mention this as a reminder to have an open mind when constructing rosters for these slates.

My guess on final ownership::

• Justin Herbert ~40%
• Baker Mayfield ~25%
• Geno Smith ~25%
• C.J. Stroud ~10%

Strategy and Game Theory::

• Overstacking is also very much in play on this slate, as a two game slate can be so wildly variant that if one of the games takes off (or one of them is a complete flop), the other one can really carry you. Most people will have about 4 or 5 players from one game and 3 or 4 from the other, as “balancing” the roster feels most comfortable. Also, the more common build tends to be choosing a defense from the game you have fewer skill players from. These are tendencies of the field that we can lean into with roster construction to gain an edge.
• The Chargers defense did a great job forcing things underneath against the Chiefs and the Raiders play two tight ends at a very high rate. In theory, this could lead to fewer opportunities (or just less successful opportunities) for secondary receivers Tre Tucker and Dont’e Thornton. Both Raiders tight ends, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, could be played together to create a unique roster construction. The way to look at it is you are removing Bowers from the tight end pool and betting on Mayer outscoring Dalton Schultz, Cade Otton, and the Chargers tight ends (not a huge ask)…..then looking at Bowers as a “Flex” player and betting on him being one of the higher raw scores on the slate (also not a huge ask). This construction in and of itself will be somewhat rare as it just feels so weird to play two TEs from the same team, but you can make it even more unique by doing this on rosters that DO NOT have Geno Smith at QB.
• Another unique roster construction would be three Tampa Bay WR/TE on the same roster without Mayfield. Mayfield’s salary is far higher than the other QBs and as discussed earlier this could be a high volume passing game but that doesn’t guarantee 300 passing yards or where the TDs will come from. With Geno coming off a solid game and being so cheap, while Justin Herbert has ability to add a lot of yards on the ground, this was something that stood out to me as having value on such a small slate. It isn’t hard to see one of Evans/Egbuka going over 100 yards without a touchdown, while the other one had more modest reception/yardage totals but catches a touchdown….and then either Sterling Shepard catching 5 or 6 balls at a salary of only $3,100 after being targeted 6 times in Week or Cade Otton catching a touchdown pass. Like I said, it sounds kind of crazy but the “story” for how that plays out as optimal on a slate like this really isn’t that hard to imagine.
• The Studs – As is always the case on these slates, someone among the “Studs” are likely to have the highest raw scores which makes selecting among them critical, and likely necessary to winning. There are seven players with salaries over $6,000 on this slate – one QB, two RBs, three WRs, and one TE. The reality is that when building a roster MOST rosters are going to have three players from this group as that is what looks the best and feels most comfortable. Finding a way to get four (or even five) of these “Studs” on your roster will naturally make your build more unique while also forcing you to take on some uncomfortable plays at other positions. On the flip side, if you only roster two of these players you almost certainly will have salary left over and few people will be able to resist the urge to spend that extra salary to add another perceived “stud”. I much prefer the former route, with four or five studs rather than just two, but as we try to find paths to first place not just having three will in and of itself have value.

Positional Rankings::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB::

1. Omarion Hampton
2. Bucky Irving
3. Ashton Jeanty
4. Nick Chubb
5. Rachaad White

WR::

1. Emeka Egbuka
2. Nico Collins
3. Mike Evans
4. Ladd McConkey
5. Jakobi Meyers
6. Quentin Johnston
7. Keenan Allen
8. Sterling Shepard
9. Tre Tucker

TE::

1. Brock Bowers
2. Cade Otton
3. Michael Mayer
4. Dalton Schultz

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Dont’e Thornton
  • Woody Marks
  • Jayden Higgins
  • Xavier Hutchinson
  • Tyler Conklin
  • Najee Harris

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 7:00 pm ET Monday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)