Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- TE Cade Otton (knee) missed Week 15 after managing a single limited session. It remains to be seen if he will increase his level of activity ahead of Week 16.
- The Panthers are mostly healthy after a late-season, Week 14 bye.
- These two teams are currently tied atop the NFC South at 7-7 and play each other twice in the final three weeks of the regular season, making this game of utmost importance to the playoff hopes of both teams.
- The Panthers are likely to start this one in a run-balanced offensive stance, while the Buccaneers are one of the most reactive teams in the league this season. That makes the likeliest scenario a more muted game environment, although there are paths to upside should the Buccaneers be forced into increased aggression in a must-win game.
- Both backfields are now timeshares, sapping a lot of the upside from all running backs in this game.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
The early-season, late-game magic wore off in a hurry for the Buccaneers. Now losers of five of their last six games after starting the season 6-2, Tampa Bay now finds itself tied with the Panthers atop the NFC South at a 7-7 record. A ridiculous nine of 14 games involving the Buccaneers have been decided by seven points or less this season, winning four of the first five one-score games and losing three of the last four such contests. The two sides of the ball are headed in diverging directions as far as health is concerned, with RB Bucky Irving, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, and WR Jalen McMillan returning from injury in recent weeks, and CB Zyon McCollum headed to injured reserve and LB SirVocea Dennis and S Tykee Smith dealing with significant injuries. CB Jamel Dean also continues to experience setbacks with his health, now playing through multiple injuries in the last three games after missing Week 12. Head coach Todd Bowles also showed some mental strain following their Week 14 loss to the Falcons, essentially placing the brunt of the blame on the players for not executing in the loss. That highlights some potential cracks in the foundation in Tampa, with these final three weeks likely to influence the franchise’s direction in the looming offseason. The Buccaneers have been one of the most game environment-dependent teams this season, as far as offensive structure and play calling tendencies are concerned, typically taking the game as it comes. In other words, they are largely not responsible for being the source of ignition for game environments in 2025, but are more than capable of contributing to them.
The return of Irving for Week 13 has left the backfield with clearly delineated roles. Irving is the primary early-down back, Rachaad White is the primary change of pace and clear passing down option, and Sean Tucker is the preferred short-yardage back. The latter is potentially the most important distinction here, as Tucker has every carry inside the five since Irving returned three games ago, leaving Irving with a middling 13.5 XFP/G in that span. Furthermore, and as has been the case throughout 2025, Irving’s efficiency has taken a massive hit as compared to his breakout 2024 campaign, averaging only 3.67 YPC since returning from injury and 3.47 YPC on the season. Finally, Irving has been held to between 49% and 54% of the offensive snaps in all three games post-injury. The Panthers are now a middling matchup on the ground, allowing 4.4 YPC behind 2.51 yards before contact per attempt.
The return of Mike Evans was a sight to behold, with the veteran immediately returning to the alpha role through the air. He played only 55% of the offensive snaps in his first full game since Week 3 but saw 10 targets on 26 routes (65% route participation), catching six for 132 yards. Also notable was the fact that rookie Emeka Egbuka saw his involvement in the offense nerfed in the first game all season with a healthy Evans and Chris Godwin, running on a route on only 55% of the team’s called pass plays. That came with an elite 0.32 TPRR, but the dip in time on the field with the other two primary contributors back is noteworthy. Godwin was in a route at a team-leading 92.5% frequency, but it came with a lowly 3.8 aDOT last week, making him a shakier bet in GPPs than most box score-watchers will assume. The injury to tight end Cade Otton is also far less likely to influence the structure of this offense, as we’ve seen him largely absent from the offensive game plan when the primary pass-catchers have been healthy for the previous two-plus seasons. Evans (0.32 TPRR) and Egbuka (0.29) have been the primary options for the Buccaneers against single-high, which the Panthers find themselves in at an elevated 55.3% frequency due to their robust Cover-3 utilization (second highest in the league at 41.0%).
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