Bucs (

19.5) at
Bills (

26)

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Both RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin managed back-to-back limited sessions to start the practice week for the Buccaneers. It remains to be seen if either will return to the game-day roster this week (both are currently labeled as doubtful), but it’s a step in the right direction.
• Bills TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) has yet to practice this week and seems to be trending towards an absence.
• WR Joshua Palmer appears set to make his return to the game-day roster for the Bills after missing the previous three games.
• The Bills really struggle to defend man/gap run concepts, behind which Sean Tucker leads the Buccaneers in all meaningful metrics this season. Just an interesting stat grab, if nothing else.
• The likeliest scenario in this game likely leaves a lot to be desired in a fantasy setting, but we know both of these teams carry significant upside should things break just right.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers are winning in a far different way this season than they have in recent history, with Todd Bowles’ defense the biggest contributing factor to their successes. Well, that and some fourth-quarter heroics from quarterback Baker Mayfield, which willed this team to a 4-1 start to the season, with each win including a two-minute drive to either walk it off or take the lead with under a minute to play. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed the lowest explosive pass rate while forcing the fourth-highest opponent PROE and the eighth-highest opponent pass play rate (60.65%). We have seen the defense struggle a bit more on the ground from an explosive run rate allowed perspective (slightly elevated 5.0% explosive run rate allowed), but they are still holding opponents to 4.2 yards per carry on the year. Offensively, the team has been forced to the air more than they would otherwise like due to the sheer number of close games they have found themselves in this season (34.7 pass attempts per game), with Mayfield averaging 15.4 pass attempts per game in the first half and 19.3 per game after the break.

Offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s offense loves man/gap concepts, utilizing that blocking scheme on over 65% of their carries this season. It is at least a tad bit interesting to me that Sean Tucker leads the team in yards per carry behind man/gap concepts this season (4.37), also leading the team (by far) in explosive run rate (6.3%). The Bills have allowed a robust 5.58 yards per carry against man/gap concepts this season, fourth highest in the league, and have allowed an explosive run at the fourth highest rate (8.2%). Schematically speaking, it would make a lot of sense for the Buccaneers to give Tucker additional work, considering the biggest weakness of the Buffalo defense. We clearly don’t know if that will happen here, and it could be a moot point should Bucky Irving return, but I think it bears consideration in an MME setting. Compare those numbers to the 1.1% explosive run rate of Rachaad White and his 3.81 yards per carry behind man/gap, and it becomes pretty clear where the upside case from this backfield lies.

The Buccaneers have played four games without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this season. In those four games (Weeks 6, 7, 8 and 10), it’s actually tight end Cade Otton that leads the team in receiving (238 yards to the 232 of Emeka Egbuka) and YPRR (1.93 to the 1.87 of Egbuka), while it’s Tez Johnson that leads the team in FP/RR (0.47). That isn’t meant to take away anything from the standout rookie, simply highlight the fact that the floor is likely lower than most people’s perception. That said, the Bills have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (6.2) while utilizing elevated rates of zone coverage and nickel packages, and Egbuka handily leads the team in underlying metrics in both splits. Ebuka wrecks against Cover-3, specifically, and the Bills run Cover-3 at an elevated 32% frequency this season (0.29 TPRR, 2.31 YPRR, 0.47 FP/RR) and have been near league average in explosive pass rate. Egbuka clearly carries the most upside of Tampa’s pass-catchers.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::