Browns (

19.75) at
Jets (

17.75)

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• WR Isaiah Bond missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury and LB Carson Schwesinger missed with an ankle issue. 
•  The Jets didn’t have anyone miss practice on Wednesday, but they just traded away CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams.
• It’s unclear whether Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor will start at QB for the Jets. 
• Breece Hall seems deeply unhappy with the Jets front office and has barely played over 50% of the snaps in the past two weeks. 
• Garrett Wilson is set to come back from injury, but we can’t be sure who will be throwing to him. 
• Dillon Gabriel doesn’t look like an NFL-caliber QB. 
• Quinshon Judkins is the only interesting player in this game, but he has a lot of game-environment factors working against him. 
• The Browns pass catchers are all dirt cheap, but that’s based on a horrific season-long performance.
• The best play from this game is probably the Browns’ defense.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How CLEVELAND Will Try To Win ::

The 2-6 Browns come into Week 10 in the midst of another throwaway season. As a Pirates fan, it’s easy to relate to how Browns fans must feel after years of a horrific on-field product. The Browns have struggled to find a franchise quarterback (the one they had, they ran out of town), and the NFL has shown that without at least an average QB, it’s nearly impossible to win. The Browns are currently trotting out Gabriel, a 24-year-old rookie who looks like he might struggle to stick in the league as a career backup. Ownership keeps saying we are going to see Shedeur Sanders at some point, and Kevin Stefanski just “gave up” play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Tommy Reese. An offensive head coach doesn’t say he wants to stop calling plays, he’s told he’s going to stop calling plays. The switch to Reese looks like ownership getting involved and is possibly the first move towards getting Sanders on the field. In fairness to ownership, there isn’t much of a reason not to see what Sanders can do at the pro level. It’s already clear that Gabriel isn’t the answer. 

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The Browns have been playing fast (third in seconds per play) and learning on the run (23^rd in pass rate over expectation-PROE). There has been a large disconnect in how the Browns want to play, and how they have been forced to play (No. 5 in pass rate). The Browns are dead last in points per play, yards per play, and success rate. That’s about as bad as you can be offensively, and when paired with an above-average defense, the Browns’ game environments have been putrid for fantasy.  The Browns’ O-line has been as bad as the rest of the offense (32^nd-ranked by PFF). They rank dead last in PFF’s pass-blocking metrics, and their lone bright spot has been LG Joel Bitonio, and even he is more average than good. The Jets’ defense has adequate against the run (12^th in DVOA) and thrashed through the air (31^st in DVOA). Those numbers are likely to get worse after the Jets traded away their two best defensive players at the deadline. It’s hard to fault New York for starting a rebuild. They got a nice haul of picks for Gardner and Williams, but they are going jto be a train wreck for the rest of the year. The Browns are worst offensive team in the NFL, and after switching play callers it’s hard to know exactly how they’ll attack. But, with the state of their passing game, the Browns are likely to start off trying to win on the ground. Expect the Browns to run until they can’t, which has been their strategy most of the year. 

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

This game is ugly for DFS. I wouldn’t fault anyone for skipping over this one. These are two of the worst offenses in the league on teams that are desperately trying to lose to draft a QB next April. There isn’t much to get excited about, but in the interest of completeness, let’s look at this one for DFS. 

The Browns Passing Game 

Gabriel ($4,400) is basically free, but that’s where the positives end. Ownership seems to want Sanders to get a shot, and that creates a real risk for an in-game benching. The Jets have given up, but so have the Browns, and Gabriel isn’t the type of play I’ll ever make in DFS. How cheap can Jerry Jeudy ($3,900) get before we consider him? He’s the cheapest WR1 I can remember without an injury forcing a backup into an elevated role. It’s crazy to think that Jeudy was productive last year! He’s so cheap, and the matchup is so good that I can see an argument for playing him, but the floor is zero. I’d only use Jeudy if his salary made me love the rest of my roster. There are no other Browns WRs worth considering. David Njoku ($3,200) and Harold Fannin ($4,200) are the guys seeing the most targets. I can see using Njoku as a salary-saving punt, but if he doesn’t score, he’s going to hurt your roster. Fannin is priced too high for a TE on a bad offense. He could post a respectable score, but I’d rather save the money and play Njoku, even though Fannin looks like he has passed him as the TE1. Realistically, I’m not going to play anyone from this passing attack.  

The Browns Running Game

Judkins ($6,500) is the lone player worth considering in this game. The Browns want to win on the ground and the Jets just traded away their best player up front. Judkins should get over 20 opportunities, and if anyone is going to post a big score it’ll be him. Even though he’s worth considering, he’s still playing in an awful game environment, behind a terrible O-line, on the road, with a tiny total. Sometimes we see defenses play inspired ball after leadership “gives up,” taking an us-against-the-world mentality. There is some chance the Jets defense plays better than expected. I’m keeping Judkins on my list, but RB is the only position with some highly appealing options on this slate, which means it’s likely he won’t end up on my tighter builds. 

The Jets Passing Game 

Fields ($5,200) or Taylor ($4,700) will be under center this week. with my gut telling me it’ll be Fields after the Jets won their first game with him at the helm. Either way, it’s hard to get excited about playing a Jets QB against a defense that has given much better competition problems. I’d rather play Browns D ($2,900), which looks underpriced, than either of these QBs. Fields has posted some big scores this year, but those games came against Cin // Dal // Mia // Pit. while he has posted total duds against Car // Den // Buf.  Fields looks matchup-dependent, and the Browns aren’t an easy matchup. I’m not going to use a Jets QB regardless of who starts. Wilson ($6,100) looks likely to return this week, but it’s impossible to trust a WR in a bad game environment, coming off injury, when we don’t even know who is starting at QB. Wilson is a good player, but he’d have to be priced significantly cheaper or have a stronger matchup for me to consider him. Adonai Mitchell ($3,000) is min-priced and should take over a starting role opposite Wilson eventually, but there is way too much guesswork involved to use him this week. Mason Taylor ($3,200) is an ok punt option if saving salary at TE, but he is a punt, and you’ll need him to fall in the end zone to matter. I won’t play him unless he’s the only way to make the rest of my roster work. 

The Jets Running Game

Hall ($6,000) seems deeply unhappy with the organization based on his social media posts. It wouldn’t be shocking to see low effort or a phantom injury. His production to date is like Fields. He has posted good games against Cin // Dal // Mia // Pit and has posted duds in the others. The Browns’ run defense has been lights out, and I’m not interested in playing an upset Hall in a poor matchup. It’s also worth noting that Davis ($5,000) played nearly half the snaps the past two weeks. With Hall’s bad attitude becoming public, this could be the game Davis players over 50% of the snaps. I have no interest in this backfield.  

Final Thought

This game is ugly. It’s a battle between two teams who are trying to punt the season. We can’t be sure who is starting at QB for the Jets, and we can’t be sure Gabriel won’t get benched at halftime. The Jets offense is totally unappealing in a poor matchup against the Browns’ strong defense. Judkins is worth considering since he has the upside to get over 20 opportunities and the talent to make his chances matter, but he has a lot working against him. I understand using Judkins, especially in a correlation with the Browns defense, but that probably isn’t a play I’m going to make on my tighter builds. The Browns passing game is pathetic. I’m going to avoid this game entirely.