Broncos (

19.5) at
Texans (

21.5)

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Denver has quietly been one of the best teams in the league and is realistically a couple of plays away from a perfect record. 
• The Broncos will be without the services of the reigning defensive player of the year, Patrick Surtain II, for the next four to six weeks.
• Houston’s offense came alive in Week 8, while their defense has once again been one of the top units in the NFL in 2025.
• The Texans should be getting back wide receivers Nico Collins and Christian Kirk, while they are likely to be without tight end Dalton Schultz.
• Houston is highly unlikely to have success running the ball in this matchup due to their own struggles and Denver’s strength.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How denver Will Try To Win ::

As explored last week, the two Broncos losses this season were in Weeks 2 and 3, by a combined four points, on the road, and against two very good teams. Each game was decided by a field goal at the end of the game and this team is just a couple of plays away from a perfect record at this point. Obviously you can say “what if” for a lot of teams, but the margin for Denver has been relatively small in those losses and they have handled their business in many games this year, while also managing a signature road win over the Eagles and a dramatic comeback over the Giants. Denver is just a very good football team with the potential to be great if they can clean some things up.

We discussed this last week in the Dallas game and hit the nail on the head. When the Broncos are able to play “ahead of the sticks”, they are dangerous and dynamic. Early down success opens up the whole playbook and allows them to create chunk plays and be successful on third downs. The Dallas defense is so bad that they were constantly allowing the Broncos to move the ball on early downs. As evidence, here are the yards gained by Denver on their first downs during the first half last week::

• 7
• 1
• 0
• 16
• 21
• 10
• 25
• 2
• 7
• 32
• 11
• 4
• 11
• 6
• 8

It was just so easy to move the ball and they were in rhythm and successful in all areas last week. This week against Houston provides a far different test. The Texans have the 4th ranked DVOA defense in the league, including the #1 pass defense and a middling 16th ranked run defense. Houston has PFF’s 2nd ranked pass rush and is able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks despite rarely blitzing, ranking 21st in the league in blitz rate. The Texans defense is designed to make opponents work very hard to gain yards and doesn’t give up anything easy, which is a far cry from the Cowboys “everyone eats” defensive approach. Denver is coming off their best offensive game of the season and has scored 77 points in their last five quarters of football, but this will be a difficult test for sure.

J.K. Dobbins is still the lead back and had a great game last week, despite RJ Harvey stealing the show (and the TDs). These two should be a focal point this week as the Broncos will need to have success running the ball on early downs. WR Courtland Sutton is a very good player, but also very matchup sensitive. He is likely to draw the attention of Texans star cornerback Derek Stingley in this one when the Texans play man coverage, and the Broncos have shown they will not force the issue in those spots and Stingley’s skill set is one that could potentially erase Sutton when they are matched up. Lucky for Sutton, however, the Texans play the fourth highest rate of zone coverage in the league and he should run at least half of his routes away from Stingley. Week 8 breakout WR Troy Franklin is likely to find fewer openings in the Houston secondary than he did against Dallas, but the role should remain solid. Meanwhile, the skills of Marvin Mims Jr. will likely be missed this week due to a concussion. This could mean an increase in 2-TE personnel for the Broncos as they look to attack the Texans more aggressively on the ground. It could also mean an increase in snaps for rookie WR Pat Bryant, who caught his first touchdown last week, and a bigger role for TE Evan Engram as a short area extension of the running game. Denver is willing and able to spread the ball around and will be looking to protect QB Bo Nix from an elite pass rush while working for every inch against a very good defense.

How houston Will Try To Win ::