Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- Denver enters the week with a two-game lead in their division and only a half-game behind the Patriots for the top seed in the AFC.
- Denver has won nine consecutive games and seven of them have been decided by one score.
- The Broncos defense has been elite again this season and has been especially dominant against weak offenses.
- Las Vegas has scored over 20 points only three times this season, and only once since Week 4.
- These teams met a month ago in an ugly Thursday night game that the Broncos won 10-7.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How denver Will Try To Win ::
“Just win, baby” is the famous motto of the Raiders, coined by their late owner Al Davis. Well, that is exactly what the Broncos have been doing this season. Denver started the season slow and lost two of their first three games, both on field goals at the buzzer. Since then, they have found a way to win nine straight times in a variety of game environments against opponents of all different levels. Their most recent win was a Sunday night football barnburner that went to overtime in Washington where they scored a touchdown, then allowed the Commanders to answer, before stopping their two-point conversion attempt. On the flip side, the first time they played the Raiders was an ugly low-scoring game that they just grinded out and survived. They have played games on both ends of the spectrum, but keep finding ways to gut it out. That being said, their current formula is one that is not really sustainable in a highly variant game like football.
Denver has operated a balanced offense this season and is slightly above their expected pass rate for the season and in recent weeks. They did throw the ball at an elevated rate last week against Washington, but that likely had a lot to do with a Commanders defense that ranks last in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed, as well as a competitive and somewhat high scoring game script. The Broncos offense really struggled the first time these teams played, however, and their approach is likely to differ from that first matchup when Nix had a season low 28 pass attempts. Denver picked up the pace last week in Washington and utilized more no-huddle and faster offensive tempo, with strong results. It would make sense for that approach to carry over here and for the Broncos to try to jump out ahead on a struggling Raiders team so they can have a “comfortable” win for once.
The backfield involves three running backs, with Jaleel McLaughlin operating as the backup to RJ Harvey while Tyler Badie handles obvious passing situations. Harvey is clearly the top-dog, however, and he has handled 60% of the running back opportunities since JK Dobbins went down for the season. Harvey scored two short yardage touchdowns last week and while Badie plays situationally, the team still throws the ball to Harvey often enough for it to matter. He has three targets in each of his starts and has at least three targets in eight of twelve games this season. The Raiders run defense is slightly below average in season long metrics, but has been struggling lately and got gashed by Kimani Vidal and the Chargers last week. This is a great matchup for the Broncos running game and they could be in store for high play volume with the Raiders offense likely to struggle sustaining drives.
In the passing game, things are as murky as always for Denver. Courtland Sutton is their top wide receiver, but his usage is spotty and inconsistent. He had a nice game last week, but has only scored 20+ PPR points once all season and has only been targeted more than six times in a game once since Week 5. He shouldn’t disappear in this matchup, but things will likely be spread around for Denver. After Sutton, it appeared that Troy Franklin had emerged as the clear WR2 for the Broncos until rookie Pat Bryant outplayed him Sunday night in their first game after their bye week. Bryant is a more physical player and terrific run blocker who the coaches love. Both Bryant and Franklin are likely to stay involved and on the field a lot, with their production likely to be hard to predict. The final pieces of this offense are TE Evan Engram and WR Marvin Mims Jr. Engram had his best game of the season against Washington as he torched the slow linebackers of the Commanders. This matchup is not quite as good or obvious, but he will still be involved – just less likely to make the big plays after the catch we saw in Week 13. Mims is more of a “gadget” player, seeing around 30% of the team’s snaps most weeks and being used on runs, short area designed passes, or the occasional deep shot. When he is on the field, it is likely the team is going to him or using him as a decoy and key part of the play.
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