Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- Denver is leading the AFC West by a game over the Chargers and would be the conference’s top seed with a bye if the season ended today.
- The Broncos are second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation over the last month as they put more on the plate of quarterback Bo Nix.
- The Chiefs have lost quarterbacks to torn ACL’s in consecutive weeks, leaving relatively unknown QB Chris Oladokun in line to start his first NFL game against one of the league’s top defenses.
- Kansas City is likely to be without wide receivers Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton for this game, while Denver will be without rookie wide receiver Pat Bryant.
How denver Will Try To Win ::
The Broncos are the current top seed in the AFC, but are only a game ahead of the Chargers for the division lead and play them in Week 18. If Denver wins this game and the Chargers lose to the Texans on Sunday, Denver would clinch the AFC West. Denver has been one of the more aggressive passing offenses in the league in recent weeks, and the Chiefs defense is struggling with efficiency and couldn’t handle being on the field so often last week due to the offense’s inability to sustain drives. This could be a “run it up” spot for head coach Sean Payton, who is no stranger to keeping his foot on the gas.
Denver continues to rotate their skill players at a high rate, employing three-man committees at both running back and tight end while also playing five different receivers on over 20% of their snaps in Week 16. The backfield continues to be predictable with rookie RJ Harvey operating as the clear top option, while Jaleel McLaughlin mixes in for about 10 snaps per game and Tyler Badie plays in obvious passing situations due to his strength in pass protection. Harvey dominates the backfield touches despite the split in snaps; this game being on a short week and the Broncos entering as two-touchdown favorites could lead to a greater workload for the other two this week. Evan Engram is the team’s top receiving option at tight end, but has seen over five targets in a game only once (in an overtime game) since Week 7. Finally, Courtland Sutton is by far the team’s top wide receiver and plays nearly every snap and leads them in most statistical categories. However, rookie wide receiver Pat Bryant had a scary situation at the end of Week 16’s loss to the Jaguars and is not going to play this week. This should leave Troy Franklin in line for an expanded role, along with Marvin Mims Jr. and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Broncos head coach Sean Payton has a history with Humphrey from his time in New Orleans, and when Bryant missed Week 15, Humphrey played on 68% of the team’s snaps. Expect him to be involved this week in a meaningful way.
The Chiefs defense is more bark than bite, as the name brand associated with them carries more weight than the reality of their performance this season. They gave up 26 points to the Titans last week, which is the second highest total Tennessee has achieved all year. Denver has the league’s second highest pass rate over the last month as they have started to unleash Bo Nix. Against a struggling Chiefs team, we should expect them to take some early swings to take control of the game script. If Denver can get a lead, their defense is likely to destroy the Chiefs offense. Kansas City’s only chance in this game is to turn it into a low-scoring and ugly game, which the Broncos know they will face as they enter this game, and is the exact situation they will try to avoid. Kansas City is likely to be without All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie and fellow starting cornerback Jaylen Watson. The Chiefs are 11th in run defense DVOA and 23rd in pass defense DVOA, while getting modest results in QB pressure rate despite blitzing at the league’s third highest rate. This sets them up as a bit of a “pass funnel,” especially with their depleted secondary. The Titans running backs just gashed the Chiefs for over 200 yards from scrimmage, so it’s not like Kansas City is a brick wall in that regard. The Broncos should have enough success on the ground to open up their downfield passing and play-action concepts. Denver’s offense is most efficient when they are able to have success on early downs and really open up the playbook, as we saw most notably in their matchup with the Cowboys earlier this year. Expect Denver to make a statement on Christmas Day and play aggressively as they try to handle their business early and leave little doubt to the outcome.
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