Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- One of the primary questions on any slate is, “is there a way for Super Josh to be unleashed?” That does not change in Week 15.
- TE Dalton Kincaid practiced in full on Thursday, his first such practice since returning from a hamstring injury.
- The Patriots are mostly healthy coming out of their Week 14 bye.
- The playoff implications are massive in this one, with the Bills chasing the Patriots for the AFC East crown, the Patriots fighting for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after winning 10 straight, and the potential for the Bills to fall into a tie for the No. 7 seed with a loss.
- Both teams average 27.0 points per game or more.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::
The Bills rank 23rd in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while averaging 29.5 pass attempts (26th) and 31.2 rush attempts (second) per game. They average the second-most yards per game (383.7) and the fifth-most points per game (28.9), while their defense has held opponents to an average of 307.1 yards (10th) and 22.5 points (14th) per game. They have held all but four opponents to 24 points or fewer, with quarterback Josh Allen going nuclear in the four games on the other side of that sample. That’s right, folks, Super Josh has appeared in three of four games in which the Bills allowed more than 24 points this season. One of the key matchups in this game that will likely influence the Bills’ offensive tendencies is a Buffalo defense allowing a touchdown on 59.46% of opponents’ red-zone trips (20th) against a New England offense scoring a touchdown on only 51.06% of their red-zone trips (25th). If the Patriots can break through early, there are clear paths that lead to the Bills opening up their offensive structure in a borderline must-win game.
Lead back James Cook averages 19.2 rush attempts per game while Allen has accounted for 6.7 rush attempts per game, leaving roughly 4.3 rush attempts per game to the combination of Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. The most interesting aspect of that setup is the opponent, with the Patriots facing only 22.2 rush attempts per game (second fewest) and 32.3 pass attempts per game this season. They have allowed only 4.0 yards per carry while giving up an explosive run at a lowly 3.6% clip. Which is to say, the pure rushing matchup for Cook leaves a lot to be desired, and he went for just 49 yards on 15 carries the first time these two teams met. Even so, the structure of the Buffalo offense is such that there are always paths to 100 yards and multiple scores on the ground for Cook, which keeps him in GPP consideration most weeks.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The team leader in route participation for the Bills this season is Khalil Shakir at a lowly 69.4%. The team signed both Gabe Davis and Brandin Cooks to the active roster in recent weeks, but it remains to be seen how the wide receiver rotation shakes out with a healthy Joshua Palmer. I would expect Cooks to be the first player headed for a potential healthy scratch on game day, unless Keon Coleman returns to the shadow realm. Even so, not a single pass catcher saw more than 58% of the offensive snaps a week ago, which includes both Kincaid and Dawson Knox. It is simply extremely difficult to project any of the eight primary pass catchers (five wide receivers and three tight ends, with the receivers likely in flux due to the health of Palmer) for meaningful volume on a weekly basis. For example, there have been only two instances of a single Buffalo pass catcher seeing more than five targets over the previous month, a 10-target game for Shakir against the Texans and a seven-target game for Knox last week against the Bengals. Good luck trying to figure out where the individual upside is coming from this week.
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