Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WR Joshua Palmer (knee) got in consecutive limited sessions to start the week after missing the previous two games.
- RB James Cook (ankle) upgraded to a limited session Thursday after a DNP Wednesday, placing him on track to suit up against the Dolphins.
- The Bills are hurting a bit on the defensive side of the ball, with CB Christian Benford going from limited to DNP, DE A.J. Epenesa logging consecutive DNPs, and LB Shaq Thompson sidelined all week (as of Thursday) with a hamstring injury. It does appear likely that NT Daquan Jones and NB Taron Johnson return after three and one missed games, respectively.
- The biggest injury news for the Dolphins is CB Rasul Douglas, who has yet to practice this week with foot and ankle injuries.
- The Dolphins traded a big name at the deadline in LB Jaelen Phillips. OLB Bradley Chubb was shopped but ultimately remained with the team. The team also reportedly listened to offers on WR Jaylen Waddle but was not blown away enough to move him.
- The Dolphins rank 26th in offensive DVOA and 29th in defensive DVOA while the Bills rank second in offensive DVOA and 19th in defensive DVOA.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::
The Bills are perfectly fine winning games in other ways than through Super-Josh mode in recent history, and this season is no different. A defense holding opponents to 311.3 yards (12th) and 20.9 points per game (ninth), in addition to one of the most efficient run games in the league, will help that cause. Really the only aspect of their defense that has struggled this season is when they face power run games, which shows up in the game logs. They allowed the Ravens to score 40 points then lost to the Patriots and Falcons. They’ve pretty much handled business against all other opponents, the Chiefs included. Furthermore, only the Seahawks have a higher pressure-to-blitz ratio than the Bills this season, a team that utilizes heavy rates of zone coverage from nickel packages, allowing one of the most athletic defensive fronts to generate organic pressure. The last time these two teams met back in Week 3, Allen attempted only 28 passes while Cook handled 19 carries. That is a good baseline from which to deviate here.
The key matchup in this game is Cook against a Dolphins defense allowing the highest explosive-run rate in the league. Cook currently ranks behind only Jonathan Taylor in yards per carry, of backs with more than 35 carries, and behind only Taylor, Breece Hall, J.K. Dobbins (queue the dragon meme), and De’Von Achane in explosive yards. Cook’s touchdown upside continues to be heavily reliant on carries from outside the five, considering he has accounted for only 31.8% of the team’s carries inside the five this season, but he boasts a league-leading 62.7% success rate. The low involvement in the green zone has hit Cook’s expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) hard, currently sitting at a 13th-ranked 14.7 this season. Even so, Cook has gone over 100 yards in five of eight games while scoring in five of eight games. Cook has devolved into a true yardage-and-touchdown back, with only two targets in his last four appearances, leaving him with one of the widest ranges of outcomes at the position on any given slate. This one is no different, except the matchup adds to his chances of hitting ceiling. Primary change- of-pace option Ray Davis has seen his involvement ebb and flow this season, while primary passing down specialist and two-minute back Ty Johnson has seen more consistent usage in the offense.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The Bills have utilized a loose eight-to-nine man rotation amongst their wide receivers and tight ends throughout the season. That has meant no pass catcher has seen more than 73% of the offensive snaps in either game since the team’s Week 7 bye. I don’t expect that to change even if Palmer returns from injury this week, or if Gabe Davis makes his season debut, which means we’re left touchdown hunting. The Bills have had three instances of a pass catcher going over 100 yards, one of which occurred back in Week 1 with Keon Coleman and the two others were from tight end Dalton Kincaid (both on six targets). Coleman’s season high in receiving outside of that first game is 45 yards, Khalil Shakir’s season high in receiving is 88 yards, and Kincaid has topped out at 66 yards outside of his two 100-yard games. It’s just extremely hard for yardage to pile up for any player while playing so few snaps. Obviously, that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Clearly, it can, as we’ve seen in three of eight games. The three times a pass catcher has gone over 100 yards for the Bills this season came in a 41-40 win over the Ravens, a 23-20 loss to the Patriots, and the 28-21 win over the Chiefs. As in, this team typically needs to be pushed to return GPP-worthy production through the air. The Dolphins aren’t exactly a team that is likely to push the Bills, considering they are averaging only 20.0 points per game this season.
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