Bengals (

21.25) at
Steelers (

26.75)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Samaje Perine (ankle) did not practice Wednesday and appears to be headed for an absence with a high-ankle sprain.
• QB Joe Flacco did not practice Wednesday as he manages a shoulder injury, while QB Joe Burrow returned to a limited session. Burrow is reportedly targeting Thanksgiving for a return, meaning it should be Flacco under center against the Steelers.
• Steelers LB Alex Highsmith (pec) and CB Darius Slay (concussion) did not practice Wednesday, potentially marking two big defensive losses, particulary in the pass game.
• The Bengals have averaged 37.7 points per game and allowed 39.0 points per game their last three times out.
• The Bengals have missed the most tackles this season (109) while the Steelers have missed the second most (81).
• The Bengals lead the league in pass rate, while the Steelers have faced the third highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) and most pass attempts per game (39.7).

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How CINCINNATI Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals know the limitations of their team, or, more specifically, their defense, something that has led to the highest pass rate in the league (67.75%). They currently average the third-most pass attempts per game (37.0) and the fewest rush attempts per game (18.8), with Flacco attempting 45 passes or more in three of four starts with the team. The team has averaged 37.7 points per game in its most recent three-game stretch against the Bears, Jets, and Steelers, while allowing an average of 39.0 points per game in that same span. This team is one we are going out of our way to target in DFS for their sheer ineptitude on defense and explosive potential on offense. Their opponent in Week 11 also happens to have allowed the most pass yards per game (269.4) while facing the most pass attempts per game and the third highest PROE. Finally, the Bengals also rank second in pace of play at 27.6 seconds per play.

Lead back Chase Brown is coming off a hefty 96% snap rate after change-of-pace back Perine departed the team’s Week 9 loss after one offensive snap due to a high-ankle sprain. The team has yet to release their Thursday injury report as of this writing, but I currently expect Perine to miss this week. That could potentially place Brown in line to see a massive share of the workload in the Cincinnati backfield against a Steelers opponent allowing a middling 4.1 yards per carry. The matchup yields a middling 1.97 net-adjusted yards before contact per attempt, while Brown is coming off an eight-reception game. Brown will likely project as one of the better point-per-dollar options on the slate should Perine remain sidelined, but we must keep in mind that the ceiling is likely lacking considering he has scored only three touchdowns all season, and only one outside of his two-touchdown game against the Jets in Week 8. Finally, consider the fact that Brown has not seen more than 12 carries since Week 2 and the team is averaging the fewest rush attempts per game (18.8).

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

Ja’Marr Chase holds a ridiculous 28.1 expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) in Flacco’s four starts. Just for some quick context, Davante Adams ranks second on the season in XFP/G (behind Chase) at 18.7. In other words, Chase is averaging over 50% more XFP/G in Flacco starts than the next closest player this season. Tee Higgins and Chase have combined to account for 71.8% of the team’s air yards and 62.2% of the actual yards in the previous four games, amassing a combined 820 yards and six touchdowns on 90 targets (to be fair, Chase has 63 of those) in that span. We know the team will be passing and we have a pretty good idea of where those targets will be going. Furthering the potential for an aerial eruption is a matchup against a Steeler team not only facing the most pass attempts per game, but likely to be without one of their top pass rusher in Highsmith and one of their high-dollar corners in Slay. You could not draw up a better spot on paper.

HOW PITTSBURGH WILL TRY TO WIN ::