Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- There is some weather uncertainty around this spot as Buffalo in December is lurking with chilly temperatures and potential for snow.
- This game features two of the bottom-3 run defenses in the NFL, as well as the second and sixth ranked rushing offenses in DVOA.
- Cincinnati RB Samaje Perine returned last week and handled roughly 40% of the backfield work.
- The Bengals played last week without WR Tee Higgins, who is back at practice and expected to play.
- James Cook handled 35 touches last week against Pittsburgh and seems likely to be very busy once again in a pristine matchup.
- Most of the matchup data for this game point towards the backfields, but we would be remiss to not mention the elite quarterbacks and potential for either team to have success airing it out.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
The Bengals are still somehow alive in the AFC North despite a 4-8 record after an upset win over the Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Bengals split with the Steelers and face the Ravens again next week, where they could potentially sweep the season series and take the tiebreaker if they can duplicate last week’s performance. Cincinnati ends the season with games against the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Browns – none of which are sure things for a 4-8 team, but all of which they will be favored in assuming their main players are all healthy. The short of it is that the Bengals are in a unique situation for a team with their record this deep into the season to essentially be in control of their own destiny. Their defense has been improving in recent weeks, their running game is quietly very efficient, and their dynamic passing game trio of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins is intact for the first time since Week 2.
The Bills defense mixes up zone and man coverage schemes, while historically being very good against opposing wide receivers. That being said, Chase and Higgins are somewhat matchup proof and really it depends on the game script how involved they will be. Chase is a target hog and likely to be schemed the ball one way or another, while Higgins role is more up in the air due to the matchup, weather, uncertainty of game script, and his return from a concussion. Coming back from a head injury, players generally don’t alter the way they play but the Bengals may be more hesitant to put him in jump ball situations or running certain routes that put him in position to take big hits across the middle. I would expect Higgins to be featured more on out-breaking routes and hitches, with the potential for vertical downfield shots a “break glass in case of emergency” type of option.
The Bengals approach to this game will be interesting, as they are fifth in the NFL this season in PROE (pass rate over expectation) in neutral situations and sixth overall in PROE. However, the impending Buffalo winter weather (forecast of frigid temperatures in the 20’s and a good chance for snow) along with a Bills defense that is incredibly susceptible against the run are likely to move them to a more balanced approach. Buffalo ranks 30th in run defense DVOA and has been gashed on the ground repeatedly this year. The Bengals are known for their passing game, but rank sixth in rushing offense DVOA and their often maligned offensive line has been very good in the trenches lately. Cincinnati’s offense struggled mightily with Jake Browning at quarterback, but their rushing efficiency numbers have looked even better for the season if you remove those weeks where Browning played and instead focus only on games where Burrow or Joe Flacco were at the helm. The Bengals should move the ball efficiently on the ground and run at a high rate by their standards. Ultimately their offensive success will likely rely on their elite passing game’s ability to convert in high leverage situations and/or create explosive plays. Cincinnati’s defense has been playing well of late and the Bills offense has struggled a bit recently, but the history of these teams suggest that the Bengals will feel pressure from the outset to put points on the board and ideally play from a lead as the Buffalo running game has been so elite all season.
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