Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze again went DNP-limited to start the week after doing so in each of the previous two weeks. Both should be fine come Sunday.
- RB D’Andre Swift upgraded from limited to full on Thursday and appears set to continue playing through his groin injury.
- RB Aaron Jones got in two limited sessions through Thursday and should continue to play through his shoulder and toe injuries.
- I still fail to believe J.J. McCarthy is ready to lead a consistent NFL offense. Just does not pass my eye test… yet.
- Another game involving a Brian Flores defense, another game with a wide range of outcomes.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How CHICAGO Will Try To Win ::
The Bears are now down to 24th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and have vaulted up the ranks in the NFC after rattling off six wins in seven tries following an 0-2 start. They have averaged 33.0 rush attempts and 33.2 pass attempts per game in the five games since their Week 5 bye, with the biggest improvement being the dynamism of head coach Ben Johnson’s play-calling tendencies. They are simply doing a better job at keeping opposing defenses off balance. Johnson still has a long way to go in the development of Williams, but the offense is functioning at a much higher level after their bye. Defensively, the team is allowing 375.7 yards per game (sixth most) while leading the league in total takeaways (20 total, or 2.2 per game) and allowing the fifth-most points per game (27.4). I still think back to earlier in the season when Rich Hribar accurately described this defense as either giving up points or generating a takeaway on almost all of their drives. While games against the Saints and Giants since their bye have helped in the points-allowed category, they have still allowed 42 to the Bengals and 30 to the Ravens in recent weeks, and they allowed the Giants to score 17 in the first 33 minutes before Jaxson Dart departed with a concussion last week.
The Vikings have operated as a true run-funnel defense, forcing the fifth-highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) while facing the fourth-most rush attempts per game (29.9). The difference between the Vikings and other run-funnel defenses is that they are holding opponents to just 4.2 yards per carry, whereas most other units in the league are allowing elevated per-touch production on the ground. Much of that is due to one of the more dynamic nose tackles in the game in Javon Hargrave, with the defensive scheme ceding only 1.93 yards before contact per attempt on the season. The Bears have erupted on the ground since their Week 5 bye week, now sitting second in the league in yards before contact per attempt (2.25). D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have combined to average 5.96 yards per carry, while Swift leads the league in explosive-run rate since their bye. The backfield has settled into a pure “lead back and change-of-pace back” situation, with Monangai averaging a 40.75% snap rate in the four games where both backs were healthy since Week 6.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The Vikings lead the league in blitz rate at a massive 42.2% clip. They also generate pressure at the second-highest rate this season (30.3%). That’s important against the Bears due to quarterback Caleb Williams’ distinct struggles in those splits. Williams drops from a baseline of a 60.8% completion rate and 7.29 yards per attempt to a 50.3% completion rate when blitzed and a disgusting 39.1% completion rate when pressured in 2025. His yards per attempt actually increases when blitzed to 8.06 but falls drastically to 4.56 when pressured. This will be a key component of this game, and it will be up to Johnson to minimize the effects of a relentless and dynamic pressure profile through play calling. The Vikings primarily utilize “zone-blitz” concepts, also leading the league in two-high utilization to pair with their hefty blitz rates. Interestingly enough, no Bears pass catcher holds more than a 0.23 TPRR against two-high this season (Olamide Zaccheaus) or a 20.6% target rate (Odunze), while Odunze and Moore lead the team in underlying metrics when Williams is blitzed. Moore leads the team in production when Williams is pressured, but his metrics are far from inspiring – 0.15 targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.45 yards per route run (YPRR). All of that to say, if you were to dream up the ideal defense to give Williams fits, it would probably be this exact form of the Vikings.
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