Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- This is the first of two matchups between these teams in the last month of the season, which will likely determine the winner of the NFC North.
- The Bears are currently the top seed in the NFC with a 9-3 record, having won five consecutive games in a variety of matchups and game scripts.
- Chicago’s offense has been highlighted by a dominant running game that has evolved throughout the season, while their passing game has room for growth.
- Green Bay is coming off a huge road win over the Lions that put them in striking distance of the division lead and top of the conference.
- The Packers may get wide receivers Jayden Reed and/or Matthew Golden back from injury, which would complicate things in terms of usage.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How chicago Will Try To Win ::
The Bears season has been an interesting one from the start and the turnaround for this franchise in the first season under head coach Ben Johnson has been outstanding. After seasons of missed opportunities, close losses, poor execution, and sloppy decision making under the previous regime, Chicago has been dialed in as a buttoned up operation that is clicking on all cylinders and seems to be getting better each week. The Bears are coming off a big road victory over the Eagles on Black Friday which was a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate and changed on an Eagles fumble in the late third quarter when they were deep in Chicago territory. They are currently on a 5-game winning streak and the other four games were all won by five points or less, and seven of Chicago’s twelve games this season have been decided by one score. The Bears are the current #1 seed in the NFC, but are only a half-game ahead of the 7th seeded 49ers in a wildly competitive conference.
Given the expected cold weather and the high stakes of the game, avoiding turnovers will be paramount. The Bears will prioritize high-percentage throws and secure carries to prevent giving the Packers extra opportunities. Chicago’s running game has been elite this season, ranking 4th in rushing offense DVOA and 5th in yards per rush attempt. Their offensive line has been physically dominant, creating 5.17 adjusted line yards per rush attempt – which is second in the NFL. Chicago involves two backs in their game plan, with veteran D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai splitting the “base” duties, Swift taking most of the passing down work, and Monangai taking care of things near the goal line. This week they face a very good Green Bay defense that is better against the pass than the run and Chicago will almost certainly enter Lambeau Field focused on replicating what they did to the Eagles last week.
As for the Bears passing game, Ben Johnson himself said this week that they have been winning “in spite of” it rather than “because of” it. The talent is there, but it is still developing. This is part of the genius of Johnson as many coaches would have tried to press with the shiny objects in the passing game from the outset of the season, but he focused on building a strong foundation and letting Caleb Williams and his receivers gradually grow within his elite offensive scheme. This week the Bears seem likely to be without top wide receiver Rome Odunze, who is dealing with a foot injury and has not yet practiced. This should leave veteran DJ Moore and rookie Luther Burden III in primary roles, while Olamide Zaccheaus operates as the third receiver. The expected absence of Odunze should also lead to a high rate of “12” personnel for Chicago with two tight ends on the field. Rookie Colston Loveland has essentially surpassed Cole Kmet as the top tight end option on the team, running more routes and being targeted more than Kmet in recent weeks despite Kmet playing more snaps. Loveland, Burden, and Moore will all likely see high target shares and all are capable of making plays after the catch. We can expect some play action passing for downfield shots on calculated situations as well. I could also see Odunze playing in a “limited” role in this game due to how important it is, with Burden and Moore being the regulars out there and Odunze coming in only for key drives and obvious passing situations.
Odunze’s injury and the nature of this game make it likely that the Bears will lean into these multiple tight end sets with a focus on grinding things out offensively. The Packers pass rush is elite and Caleb Williams still makes some questionable decisions, so the Bears will do everything they can to keep this game in a neutral to positive script as the last thing they want is to fall behind and have Micah Parsons teeing off on Williams in a hostile environment. Chicago should have some success running the ball on early downs, with third down conversions in short yardage situations being the key to their overall ability to score points.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.