Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- Chicago will likely play this game without RB D’Andre Swift (groin) and WR Luther Burden III (concussion), while they are likely to get TE Cole Kmet back.
- The Bengals defense has given up 15+ PPR points to an opposing running back nine times in eight games.
- Ja’Marr Chase has been targeted an incredible 42 times in the last two games, which is good for an incredible 51% target share.
- After throwing eight touchdown passes in the first four games, Bears QB Caleb Williams has only one touchdown pass in the three games since their Week 5 bye.
- Three teams allow over 6 yards per play to their opponents, and two of those teams are playing in this game.
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How chicago Will Try To Win ::
Chicago’s 4-3 record feels a bit hollow, as their wins have been against mediocre to weaker teams and/or have been the result of favorable luck and bounces. However, the Bears have shown they can be a very productive team and score points consistently throughout the season, especially in softer matchups. Last week in their 30-16 loss to the Ravens was the first time this year that Chicago was held below 21 points, and even in that game they had the ball at the Ravens 1-yard line late in the game but failed to punch it in. The Bears have three losses this season, which have come against the Vikings, Lions, and Ravens (post-bye near full strength). Those are three very well coached teams with solid defenses. This week, Chicago faces a Bengals defense that is the worst in the league by most metrics and may be without arguably their best player in defensive end Trey Hendrickson due to a hip injury.
Chicago came out of their Week 5 bye and had a run-focused approach that was highly efficient and effective in wins over the Commanders and Saints. Last week against the Ravens that plan hit a speed bump as the Ravens held Bears running backs to 3.8 yards per carry and gradually pushed the game script to a spot where Chicago had to throw the ball more. It is pretty evident that head coach Ben Johnson is doing his best to control and manage the situations QB Caleb Williams is in as he tries to mold him into the quarterback the Bears believe he can be. An important concept in coaching/teaching/parenting is setting strict expectations early and you can always loosen them up, whereas if you give too much leash to start it is always hard to reel them back in. Johnson seems to be navigating through that process with Williams as he works on his footwork, progressions, pre-snap reads, and other important aspects of being an elite quarterback.
Luckily for the Bears, this week against the Bengals they should be able to do whatever they want for most of the game. Cincinnati made the previously inept Jets offense look dynamic in Week 8 and is very poor against both the run and the pass. Expect the Bears to open things up with a run-focused approach and build passing game concepts off of that. This should mean a strong workload for RB D’Andre Swift, who has been very good for Chicago since their bye week. We could also see rookie RB Kyle Monangai get more involved in this matchup, as he has been playing very well and the Bears are likely to be focused on their running game and have success doing so. I would expect around a 65-35 split between Swift and Monangai in this matchup, with both running backs playing well with their opportunities.
The Bengals are near the bottom of the league in blitz rate and pressure rate, and the loss of Hendrickson will only exaggerate that issue. Chicago will likely be without rookie WR Luther Burden III, while the statuses of TE Cole Kmet (back) and WR Olamide Zaccheaus (knee) are up in the air. This leaves a situation where the Bears passing game will likely concentrate on wide receivers Rome Odunze and DJ Moore, with rookie TE Colston Loveland potentially getting another chance to prove himself in a full-time role, although this time it will be against a Bengals defense that ranks near the bottom of the league against opposing tight ends. The Bengals lack of pressure and blitzing should give Caleb Williams plenty of time to operate and keep him from having to force very much. His mistakes usually come when he is pressured heavily and early in a possession, while he has shown an ability to make plays with his legs when things break down. The Bengals coverages will likely try to keep Chicago’s passes to the underneath variety, but I would expect a strong and efficient game from Williams here with some calculated shots taken as Johnson looks to loosen the reins a bit in an elite matchup.
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