You know the feeling. It’s why you’re here. That glorious, maddening, weekly riddle that consumes us right until kickoff: WHO DO I START? The impact? Maybe the difference is between mess-talking victory and soul-sucking defeat. And we all want that “edge,” don’t we? That little nugget that pats us on our tushies and tells us everything will be ok. A gentle nudge, if you will. I want you to know that I’m here each week to pat your tushies (figuratively). To give you my two cents on who needs to be touching grass and who needs to be riding pine. And why.
This is your nudge. *pats tushie* Now, let’s get this ‘W’.
WEEK 7 RECEIPTS
On the week, I went 8-8. Smashed RBs and WRs (6-2)m even on QBs (2-2), and got busted on TEs (0-4).
On the season, my record stands at 61-51, which is probably about where I deserve to be. Listen, if I were 100%, I’d be out in Vegas setting odds. Instead, I’m here in the trenches with my friends. Que cera cera.
QUARTERBACKS
START — Bo Nix (DEN vs DAL): I’m starting Nix because he just engineered the greatest fourth quarter in the history of the National Football League (dramatic much?) and I expect Denver to lean into that momentum at home. Dallas’ rush doesn’t get home, and they’re loose on the back end, so I like the odds – in a shootout – of steady attempts with a few designed keepers. Potential QB1 this week.
START — Caleb Williams (CHI @ BAL): I like this as a shootout if Lamar plays, which means four quarters of pace and plenty of opportunity. Chicago will move him with boots and RPOs, and Caleb has shown he’s not afraid to rip multiple deep shots. Even if the efficiency swings drive to drive (which it will, because CW18), the combo of volume and vertical aggression gives him a shot at top-10 this week.
SIT — Jets QB (NYJ @ CIN): Whoever starts, I’m out this week. Brutal QB play minus your top wideout (Wilson is out for a few) is not how you chase floor, even in a tasty matchup. Stream elsewhere unless you’re chasing pure desperation upside. You’ve been warned.
SIT — Jordan Love (GB @ PIT): I’m sitting Love because Pittsburgh’s defense tends to squeeze passing games, especially at home. Green Bay’s best path is quick game and the run, and that caps Love’s opportunities for splash explosives in what profiles as a grinder. Unless you’re swinging for chaos, I’d pivot.
Running Backs
START — James Cook (BUF @ CAR): This is a “get-right” setup after the bye, and I expect Buffalo to juice him in space and on screens. Cook doesn’t need 25 touches – give me 15-18 with a few goal-to-go looks and I’m happy. In PPR, he’s a top-10 swing I’ll back.
START — Derrick Henry (BAL vs CHI): The stars have aligned for King Henry this week: this one gives shootout vibes, and Chicago’s rush defense has been absolutely, historically brutal. It’s the perfect week for Baltimore to remember they’ve got a monster in the backfield. 20+ touches, and a home run-level touchdown incoming.
SIT — Saquon Barkley (PHI vs NYG): Yes, I know most will play him, but I’m lowering expectations or sitting if I’ve got a comparable option. Philly siphons short-yardage scores with Hurts, and ‘Quon just hasn’t been as effective this season with the ball in his hands (maybe the shoulder is a thing). The ceiling looks slimmer than the name value suggests.
SIT — Rico Dowdle (CAR vs BUF): I’m benching him in a split backfield that will fight for touches. Buffalo comes in fresh and typically rallies to the run, so chunk gains are thin. In a likely neutral-to-negative game flow, the math with a 10-12 touch ceiling just doesn’t add up.
Wide Receivers
START — Cortland Sutton (DEN vs DAL): I’m in on Sutton because Nix trusts him where it counts – the sticks and the paint. Denver can use play-action to isolate him on slants and fades, and I expect two or three high-leverage targets. That’s top-24 juice at home.
START — Rome Odunze (CHI @ BAL): I’m stacking Odunze with Caleb for volume and design. Chicago manufacture touches – screens, crossers, glances—and he’s good enough after the catch to turn those into real fantasy points. Add one boundary shot and you’ve got a week-winner.
SIT — Jaylen Waddle (MIA @ ATL): I’m taking the cautious route here – Miami’s week-to-week volatility (translation: Tua) has wrecked WR floors. And, Atlanta has been really good against opposing WRs. Plainly stated – I’m looking elsewhere.
SIT — Deebo Samuel Jr. (WAS @ KC): I’m out on Washington’s passing game in Arrowhead unless I’m chasing pure boom. Spags’ crew does a fantastic job of squeezing the intermediate windows Deebo lives in, and the script will snowball fast with Mariota under center. I’ll wait for Jayden to come back before jumping back in on Deebo, who might not play again this week.
Tight Ends
START — Tyler Warren (vs TEN): Matchup is prime: Tennessee can be had on seams and play-action throwbacks. Warren has a real red-zone role (tuddys in three straight), and that keeps his line useful even on 5-6 targets. I’m betting touchdown equity and volume here equals a top-5 week.
START — Tucker Kraft (GB @ PIT): Green Bay needs quick answers against the rush, which funnels throws to backs and tight ends. Kraft’s on the field in money situations, and that’s all I need from a TE. Give me 4–6 catches with a shot or two inside the 10.
SIT — Mark Andrews (BAL vs CHI): I’m dialing down expectations and sitting where I’ve got a viable alternative. Baltimore will lean run inside the five, and that narrows the target pie when games tilt positive. Plus, Tremaine Edmunds is solid, and the Bears have given up only two scores to the position all year.
SIT — Chig Okonkwo (TEN @ IND): Routes and targets have been too fragile (two targets, zero catches, zero yards last week for Chig), and the emergence of Gunna Helm isn’t reassuring. On the road in a tough spot with a rookie QB, I don’t want to chase a hope-and-a-prayer line. I’ll stream someone with steadier usage and a higher floor.
