Fantasy Football Week 17 Start/Sit – WR/TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 17’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 15-5 (.700)
– WR: 9-1 (90%)
– TE: 6-4 (60%)
2024 NFL Season: 194-126 (.600)
– WR: 99-61 (62%)
– TE: 95-65 (59%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins
Opponent: v. Atlanta Falcons
Terry McLaurin is a solid start in Week 16 against the Atlanta Falcons. McLaurin has been consistent as Washington’s top wide receiver, and the Falcons’ defense has struggled mightily against quality pass catchers this season. Atlanta ranks among the bottom teams in terms of pass defense, particularly in allowing big plays. With McLaurin’s ability to stretch the field, he has the potential to post big numbers. Given the favorable matchup, McLaurin has a big ceiling in this one, and I expect him to be back in the top 10 once again this week.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: v. Dallas Cowboys
All it took was a sit reco a few weeks ago, and A.J. is back! If I had only known. Sigh. After a two-week, drama-filled hiatus, Brown has snapped off consecutive top-10 performances (WR9, WR8), and he’s set to do it again against a Dallas defense, allowing 40+ plus points a week to the position over the past four games. An obvious start if Hurts plays, and I don’t hate the matchup if it’s Kenny Pickett. Both carry injury designations into the week, and Tanner McKee is currently the only man standing. If McKee is under center Sunday, ABORT. A.J. Brown has been vocal about his hatred of the Cowboys, and in a bad-blood game, I expect him to be there for us in our fantasy playoffs. In the right space, he may return WR1 numbers this week.
Honorable mention: Nico Collins (HOU), Puka Nacua (LAR), Calvin Ridley (TEN)
My Fades This Week
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: v. Green Bay Packers
Obviously, we’re starting Jefferson. Silly to recommend him as a sit. And maybe this is less of a sit reco and more of a temper-your-expectations type thing. While Jefferson is an elite talent, the Packers defense has been performing well lately, particularly against wide receivers (-3.8 position vs. opponent). Part of this is written with the expectation that Jaire Alexander – who practiced fully all week but was a scratch Sunday – will play. Consider Two weeks ago when Jefferson squared off against the Bears’ Jaylon Johnson. While covered by Johnson, Jefferson saw seven targets, one catch for one yard (7-6-72 otherwise). Alexander is that type of defender when healthy and active. And with Addison and Hockenson playing at a high level, Darnold doesn’t have to force it to Jefferson for the Vikings to compete. That being said, sitting Jefferson is not a decision to be taken lightly, as he has the potential for explosive performances. A floor game is my expectation here unless Jaire sits.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Opponent: v. Miami Dolphins
Similar to Rico Dowdle, Jeudy delivered for us when we needed him, didn’t he? In weeks 11-15, Jeudy was DOMINANT (ahem, Denver), and no doubt carried teams into the postseason on his back. Flowers everywhere. So why the glum? Three names: Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Jeudy in his first game with DTR, you ask? Abysmal – three targets (yikes), two catches, 20 yards. Folks, it was fun while it lasted and you absolutely cannot trust Jerry as long as DTR is under center – which he will be if healthy. I promise you have better options, and if not, hit that wire.
Honorable mention: Amari Cooper (BUF), DeAndre Hopkins (KC), Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins
Opponent: @ Cleveland Browns
Six. The number six. Six straight double-digit performances Jonnu has given us. Do you know who else has done that this season? George Kittle (TE1), Bowers (TE3), and Trey McBride (TE4). That’s it. That’s the company Jonnu is in. And he’s kind of matchup-proof at this point, not that it matters because The Land is most generous to the position (24th). He’s getting peppered with targets, and he’s turning them into consistent production for us. Top 10 week for Jonnu, especially if Waddle continues to sit.
Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Running it back with my man Chig! Against a Colts defense that’s been gouged all season by TEs, Chig’s stat line was impressive – eleven targets, nine receptions, 81 yards, good enough for TE2 on the week. And now he gets a crack at the Jaguars, who have ranked 26th against tight ends (routinely giving up 15+ points)?? SWOOOOOOOON. The switch at QB has certainly favored Okonkwo, which is good news as Rudolph has been named the Week 17 starter. Obviously we’re starting the usual suspects, but in the fantasy playoffs – championship week for most of us – I’m absolutely OK rolling Okonkwo.
Honorable mention: Trey McBride (ARI), Brock Bowers (LV), Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
My Fades This Week
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: @ Philadelphia Eagles
Ferguson just isn’t consistent enough for me to bet the farm on him this weekend. The targets have been here and there with Coop at QB, but it’s mostly checkdowns and short gains with zero touchdowns (and minimal fantasy production) in sight. In fact, Ferguson hasn’t finished above TE17 since Week 9. And Philadelphia’s defense has been stellar against tight ends this season, ranking among the best in limiting fantasy production at the position. Their pass rush can also disrupt timing, reducing opportunities for players like Ferguson (check-downs) to get involved in the passing game. The Cowboys have leaned heavily on their wide receivers in recent weeks, with CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks commanding a significant target share, which further limits Ferguson’s value. Unless you’re dealing with injuries or a lack of better options, it might be wise to look elsewhere for a tight end with a more favorable matchup.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Opponent: v. New York Jets
The Jets’ defense has been consistently strong against tight ends and just limited Tyler Higbe and Co. to one catch for 11 yards. Touchdowns have been their bugaboo in recent weeks (three TDs allowed in the past four), but I don’t think that will be an issue this week, as Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox have combined for only three TDs all season. The Buffalo offense can dice your defense in several different ways, making it tough to predict with any certainty when ANY of the skill positions are going to produce. Kincaid is a gifted athlete with a QB who can sling it, but are you really trusting a TE that has one – ONE – finish above TE15 all season? Yeah, me neither.
Honorable mention: Tyler Higbee (LAR), Brenton Strange (JAX), Huner Henry (NE)
