You know the feeling. It’s why you’re here. That glorious, maddening, weekly riddle that consumes us right until kickoff: WHO DO I START? The impact? Maybe the difference is between mess-talking victory and soul-sucking defeat. And we all want that “edge,” don’t we? That little nugget that pats us on our tushies and tells us everything will be ok. A gentle nudge, if you will. I want you to know that I’m here each week to pat your tushies (figuratively). To give you my two cents on who needs to be touching grass and who needs to be riding pine. And why.
This is your nudge. *pats tushie* Now, let’s get this ‘W’.
WEEK 12 RECEIPTS
I went 10-6 on the back of 4-4 on my QB smashes and splits on the other spots.
On the season, I’ve banked 110-82 (57.3%).
QUARTERBACKS
Start: Matthew Stafford (LAR @ CAR): Stafford is playing MVP-level ball with roughly 30 touchdowns to just a couple of picks and top-tier yardage, and now he gets a Panthers defense that has not been scaring any competent passers. Vegas has the Rams as big road favorites with a healthy total, so you bet on multiple red-zone trips and a ceiling game instead of trying to galaxy-brain a fade here.
Start: Sam Darnold (SEA v. MIN): Darnold has quietly stacked top-six numbers in yards and touchdowns while piloting an 8-3 Seahawks team, and he now gets a Vikings defense that looks good in yardage allowed but still yields fantasy lines when the pass rush does not get home. At home in a projected one-score game with a low-40s total and a revenge spot against his old team, you ride the volume and JSN chemistry rather than getting scared off by a few green matchup cells on a spreadsheet.
Sit: Caleb Williams (CHI @ PHI): Caleb’s line looks fine on the surface, but the efficiency and consistency are not there, and now he has to run a noisy road offense in Philly in prime time against a defense that’s been top-third at limiting quarterback fantasy production. With the Eagles favored by a touchdown in the league’s most hostile environment, you are betting on sacks, stalled drives, and head games, not some magical breakout against a playoff defense that eats.
Sit: Aaron Rodgers (PIT v. BUF): Rodgers is coming off a fractured wrist and just ceded a start to Mason Rudolph, and now he draws a Bills defense that has allowed bottom-three fantasy production to quarterbacks all season. In a game where Buffalo is a road favorite with a high total, you are praying for a shootout just to get him to a middling line, so sit the aging legend and let someone else take the matchup risk on name value alone.
RUNNING BACKS
Start: Saquon Barkley (PHI v. CHI): Barkley is still seeing true bell-cow volume with a top-five carry count, and Chicago has quietly bled top-10 fantasy production to running backs on the ground and through the air. In a home game where the Eagles are touchdown favorites, you bet on 20-plus touches, goal-line work, and a “shut everybody up” statement line instead of panicking about a few inefficient weeks.
Start: Jaylen Warren (PIT v. BUF): Warren has handled over 140 carries with efficient 4-plus yards per tote and real juice in the passing game, and Buffalo has been more middle-of-the-pack than scary against running backs even while erasing wideouts. In a game with a mid-to-high total where Pittsburgh cannot just drop Rodgers back 40 times on a bum wrist, the path of least resistance is feeding Warren, so you plug him in and dare the Bills to stop the one part of this offense that is actually humming.
Sit: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS v. DEN): Croskey-Merritt has been an efficient hammer with nearly 500 yards and four scores, but Denver has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs in the league and treats early-down grinders like tackling-dummy drills. With the Broncos favored and Washington likely chasing a bit, you are hoping for game-flow miracles to get him enough volume, so sit him (and Chris Rodriguez while you are at it) and do not run your lineup straight into the league’s nastiest run defense on purpose.
Sit: Rico Dowdle (CAR v. LAR): Dowdle has been a monster with top-10 rushing yardage and 5.0 yards per carry, but this matchup flips to “welcome to the Rams front, which has been one of the toughest in football against backs. Carolina is a sizeable home underdog with a mediocre total, which screams negative script, so this is exactly the week you cash the earlier profits and watch someone else chase last month’s box scores.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Start: WanDale Robinson (NYG @ NE): WanDale is a certified volume hog with top-10
numbers in catches and receiving yards, and now he gets a Patriots defense that has already been roasted by perimeter guys and slot jitterbugs alike while ranking near the bottom in fantasy points allowed to receivers. In a game with a solid mid-40s total where the Giants are underdogs, you bet on catch-up mode funneling double-digit targets his way, which makes him a set-and-forget PPR play no matter how ugly the Giants brand might feel.
Start: A.J. Brown (PHI v. CHI): Brown’s raw stats are down by his alien standards, but he is still commanding a hefty target share, and Chicago has been a top-10 matchup for wideouts, bleeding chunk plays and fantasy points on the perimeter. With all the noise about him “not being the same player,” this is exactly when the alpha wideout buries a burnable secondary at home, so you swallow the volatility and let the ceiling ride.
Sit: Jerry Jeudy (CLE v. SF): Jeudy has one lonely touchdown and sub-400 yards despite ranking near the league leaders in routes run, which is a brutal efficiency profile to take into a matchup with a 49ers defense that suffocates passing games and sits near the top against wide receivers. Cleveland’s quarterback play has been shaky at best (and Shedeur is starting again – YIKES), and the team total against San Francisco is the fantasy equivalent of a shrug, so stop treating Jeudy like a matchup-start and park him until this offense proves it can actually cash those air-yard checks.
Sit: Tyler Lockett (LVR @ LAC): Lockett has managed barely over 200 yards with zero scores on the season and is now a bit-part player in an anemic Raiders passing attack, which is not the profile you chase on the road against a Chargers front that can actually rush the passer. Even if the box score finally pops, the odds of you picking that one random spike week are slim, so sit the chemistry play and avoid hitching your Week 13 to a declining receiver in a brutal offense that can barely sustain one fantasy-relevant wideout.
TIGHT ENDS
Start: George Kittle (SF @ CLE): Kittle has already hit five touchdowns with his usual yards-after-catch chaos, and his connection with Brock Purdy just became the second-most prolific QB-TE duo in 49ers history, which is exactly the kind of high-leverage chemistry you want in a tight-end slot. Cleveland has been more middle-of-the-pack than scary against tight ends, and when their pass rush forces Purdy to speed up, his default outlet is Kittle on crossers and seams, so you just keep smashing start and let talent and history do the work.
Start: Juwan Johnson (NO @ MIA): Johnson is quietly putting up borderline WR2 usage at tight end with nearly 50 catches and over 500 yards already, and Miami has not exactly been a shutdown unit against the position, giving up spiked weeks whenever athletic tight ends test their linebackers in space. In a likely up-tempo game where the Saints will have to throw to keep up with the Dolphins, Johnson’s red-zone role and target volume make him the kind of TE you start confidently while everyone else chases one-catch touchdown prayers.
Sit: Pat Friermuth (PIT v. BUF): Friermuth’s season line is fine on paper, but the weekly usage has been wildly volatile, and now he runs into a Bills defense that is top-three against quarterbacks and stingy enough against tight ends that you need a blown coverage just to get home. With Pittsburgh’s offense already juggling a banged-up Rodgers and two viable running backs, this is not the week to pray that the “what if” option wins against a talented defense, so you sit him and chase volume elsewhere.
Sit: Colston Loveland (CHI @ PHI): Loveland is still more of a developmental piece than a bankable volume tight end, and tying your Week 13 to a rookie attached to a volatile Caleb Williams on the road in Philly is asking for prime-time pain. The Eagles have been tougher on tight ends than on running backs or slot guys and are touchdown-favorites at home, so you are basically betting on a fluky red-zone play in the most hostile environment in football, which is not how you survive a fantasy playoff push.
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