Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate became extremely interesting with all the value that opened up at running back. From a macro perspective, there are three games on the Week 9 main slate with a game total over 50 points, the first time that has happened this season. This slate carries the highest median game total of the season. There are 11 games on the main slate instead of the 10 we have been used to recently. Those four key elements come together to make it highly likely we see increased fantasy scoring this week, meaning we’re likely to see the highest required raw score to ship GPPs of the season. In my opinion, we absolutely must be approaching roster construction with that in mind this week.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Monangai is a lock-button type play in single entry and three-max contests, at least for me. The matchup is that good; there is no competition for backfield opportunities with Roschon Johnson also out, and he frees up so much salary to maneuver throughout the remainder of the roster. That does not mean there isn’t merit to fading the highest-owned player of the season (there is).
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. A back that has put up 23 DK points or more in every game this season makes a lot of sense, particularly against the team allowing the most yards per carry (5.7) and one of the highest explosive run rates this season.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Chase projects as the top median raw point total at wide receiver and is in the same game as a player pushing for 50% ownership (Monangai). There are very easy ways to play the two away from the field.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Nacua has put up 24.8 DK points or more in all five fully healthy games this season, while seeing nine targets or more in each contest. He projects as the second wide receiver behind Chase in raw median projections.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Henderson carries the most uncertainty of the chalky plays this week. That isn’t to say his range of outcomes versus cost equation is not elite – it is – simply that this is still a player that the coaching staff has not yet trusted for more than 50% of the offensive snaps. I expect Terrell Jennings to be involved, but to what extent? The matchup is “fine” against a Falcons defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry but holding teams to 1.80 yards before contact per attempt. The Patriots have also struggled on the ground through eight weeks, blocking to only 1.55 yards before contact per attempt.
