Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
The Week 8 main slate has the highest median game total so far this season, but (yeah, there’s a “but”) seven of the 10 games carry a spread of 6.5 points or higher – all the way up to the Colts with a ridiculous 14.5-point spread. Even so, we should expect more points to be scored in Week 8, which means we should expect higher scores in DFS, which means we should expect a higher score required to win GPPs. This is the single most important aspect of this slate. We absolutely must be targeting a higher ceiling than on other slates this season. Here’s where the tricky part comes in – salary is tight on DraftKings, with no clear projectable value (if you call the Tennessee receivers projectable value, I will disown you). So, we want to play the Jonathan Taylors and Bijan Robinsons and Ja’Marr Chases, the players that carry those top tier ceilings, but it becomes more difficult to do so on this slate.
The first question we need to ask ourselves on a slate like this is where the value is likeliest to come from. After that, we can begin to piece together how the field is likeliest to approach value before diagnosing where the best leverage stances are to take, and if we can flip the script, so to speak, on that value. Come with me as we explore the theoretical aspects of the Week 8 NFL DFS main slate!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The best wide receiver in the league is coming off a career-high 23-target game, against a Jets team without Sauce Gardner. Can’t really poke many holes in that.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Home favorite running back for a team with a 28.25 Vegas implied team total. Can’t really poke many holes in that.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. A.J. Brown missed two games in 2024, during which time Smith saw 20 targets and held a 0.31 TPRR, 29.4% target rate, and 2.42 YPRR, while averaging 17.8 FP/G (on 19.3 XFP/G). Checks out. He also gets the pleasure of running routes against a secondary playing man coverage at the third highest rate, which will also be without two starters in the secondary.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The most explosive running back in the league against a team allowing 5.2 yards per carry and the second highest explosive run rate. Checks out.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Ew. White has a 1.6% explosive run rate on a 3.94 yards per carry mark. No, baby, what are you doin’?
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I understand Zay Flowers is the likeliest player to generate explosives through the air for the Ravens. He also has only two red zone targets, one end zone target, and a low 0.089 1D/RR this season. That has left him with a modest 13.2 XFP/G, which ranks 31st in the league at the wide receiver position. This play is entirely fragile.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. During the two-game span where Brown missed in 2024, Goedert saw 15 targets and amassed 208 yards through the air on a 0.21 TPRR, 22.1% target rate, and 2.93 YPRR, while averaging 16.9 FP/G. He leads the team in touchdowns this season. Checks out.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The back ranked second in fantasy points per game, playing for a team with the largest spread as home favorites, with the highest Vegas implied team total on the slate. Checks out.
