Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate is super interesting and dynamic because we have a few obvious spots this weekend, but those obvious spots are priced up to a point where decisions have to be made by the field. What that is likely to do is curb the expected ownership on the top plays (Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Cooper Kupp) and boost the ownership (and chalkiness of the builds) on the players, teams, and games that appear to carry similar upside at lower salaries (TB wide receivers, Darrell Henderson, Chuba Hubbard, Calvin Ridley). It would serve us well to take a methodical approach to this slate by (1) identifying the top plays in a vacuum, (2) understanding how those pieces can fit on a roster, (3) identifying the viability of value plays on the weekend, and (4) adjusting our approach based on these findings. With that, let’s jump in!
Restrictive chalk. Should be considered one of the two top plays on the slate in a vacuum. There are very few players in the NFL that are capable of 40 to 50-point explosions; the King is one.
Restrictive chalk. Should be considered one of the two top plays on the slate in a vacuum. There are very few players in the NFL that are capable of 40 to 50-point explosions; Cheetah is one.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Moderately priced exposure to one of the top offenses on the slate – makes sense. 17-24 running back opportunities in every healthy game this season, with at least one touchdown in all but one game.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. The aggregate ownership numbers indicate Chuba will be popular this week, but I honestly doubt he sees outrageous ownership after burning people last week. We should expect 20+ running back opportunities in a great matchup.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. I can see a large chunk of the field looking to gain cheap exposure to the Kansas City offense this week, and that cheap exposure is likeliest to come through D-Will. Now consider the shiny box score provided last week through his two-touchdown game, and it appears to be a “can’t-miss” situation. I would argue Williams is one of the bigger traps on the entire slate.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. No Antonio Brown. No Rob Gronkowski. No Scottie Miller. 29.5 Vegas implied team total. Yea, Godwin is going to carry heavy ownership here.
Restrictive chalk. The last remaining player in the NFL to see double-digit targets in every game played this season. Enough said.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. I was actually surprised to see the expected ownership numbers on Ridley. The only case I can make for the expected ownership is the name value paired with a moderate price tag, which should filter heavy ownership to this mid-range-in-pricing wide receiver crowd. He’s a strong play on paper, but his new, low-upside role leaves us with a scenario where he is best utilized in game stacks. That is not likely to be the way he is used by the field this week (I expect heavy one-off ownership on Ridley).
Restrictive chalk. Based on the makeup of this slate, I honestly can’t see a situation where DA garners heavy ownership, but the people who are paid to project ownership disagree. Adams is currently projected to carry top three ownership at the wide receiver position against the team allowing the most points over expectation in the league. With Adams’ receiving profile this season, in a game where the Packers are instilled as heavy favorites, it leaves a lot to be desired for me, personally. Adams is best utilized when we can project him for increased volume in a moderate aDOT role. Can he hit on nine to 11 targets? Sure, he’s one of the best receivers in the game! Will I miss it if he does? Yup.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Ah, the second member of this game to make an appearance here. Overall, this game environment is going to be under-owned, but what ownership does flow into the Falcons/Dolphins game is likeliest to flow through Calvin Ridley and Mike Gesicki. Keep an eye on the multitude of game-time decisions from the Dolphins, which is likely to have a massive input to the chances of this game truly blowing up.
Restrictive chalk. I’ll get into this one further below, as we have a significant amount of pricing psychology associated with Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce this week.
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