Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This is another clumped-up slate, with all but one game currently sitting with a game total between 43.5 and 49.5. Within that spread is a clear bias towards the latter part of the slate, where four of the top five highest game total games reside. Also of interest is the fact that all but two of the earlier games have spreads north of 5.5 points, with Vegas expecting most of them to be lopsided affairs. We have two rookie running backs in clear lead-to-workhorse situations in Omarion Hampton and Cam Skattebo, a running back in Christian McCaffrey that leads the league in XFP/G by a mile, and a wide receiver in Puka Nacua that projects substantially better than any other play at the position. From a macro perspective, we should expect heavy ownership on CMC, Nacua, and the “rookies with the backfields largely to themselves,” with a focus of ownership on the four late games (Jaguars @ 49ers, Colts @ Rams, Ravens @ Chiefs, and Bears @ Raiders).
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Nacua is averaging 26.6 DK points per game on an average of 11.7 targets per game as the primary option through the air for a highly concentrated Rams offense. He has scored 25.8 DK points or more and seen nine or more targets in all three games this season. We can’t really poke holes in any of that. He makes a strong on-paper play in the game with the highest game total in Week 4. It feels counterintuitive to say that Nacua is underpriced as the slate’s highest-priced receiver, but I would not be shocked to look back in a few weeks and think, “man, remember when we could play Nacua for under $8,000?”
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Starting to sound like a broken record here, but McCaffrey leads the league in XFP/G (28.3, which went up from his mark entering Week 3 – the next closest running back is Jonathan Taylor at 21.1, and the next closest skill position player is Chris Olave at 21.6). He has averaged 10.7 targets per game and 17.3 carries per game through three weeks. The only reason CMC won’t carry 50%+ ownership is that he’s scored only one touchdown so far, something that is not likely to hold moving forward, considering his elite workload. We could be headed towards another season where McCaffrey finds himself priced at $9,500 or more in a few weeks.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Meyers does not have elite metrics through three weeks, carrying 0.21 TPRR , a 24.0% air yards share, 1.98 YPRR, and 0.37 XFP/RR. He went over 100 yards three times, scored four touchdowns, and did both in the same game once in 2024. Furthermore, his 10.3 aDOT from 2024 has come down to 9.8 through three games. I’m more than comfy fading that profile at high ownership.
