Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
We’ve made it to the portion of the season where cheap, expansive chalk begins to take hold. Injuries are starting to shape the league, and by extension, weekly slates. Four backup quarterbacks are starting on the main slate, two running back injuries are leaving their backfields pointing towards a workhorse state, tight ends are dropping like flies, and there are numerous wide receiver injuries to pay attention to. Welcome to the chaos.
Beyond that, there is one clear and away top expected game environment on the slate while all 12 other games have game totals between 41.5 and 46.0, as of this writing. What happens to the slate if the Bears don’t show up against the Cowboys? The fact that it’s a 13-gamer increases the likelihood that we see another game environment go off. What happens if the Cowboys are pushed and their game turns into the must-have game? Is there another way to access value away from the running back position? These are the things we need to be thinking about as we prepare for Sunday.
Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Walker’s underlying metrics have been pretty good, to be honest. 13.0% explosive run rate, 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt, 5.43 yards per carry, and a low 34.8% stuff rate. He should now have the backfield mostly to himself with Zach Charbonnet listed as doubtful. The Saints are no pushover (as we’ve talked about leading up to their first two games), but they’ve still allowed 2.36 yards before contact per attempt and a middling 4.2 yards per carry. That said, and like most backs in the league, Walker needs 100 yards and multiple scores to return a top-tier GPP score.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Like Walker, Mason should be left with most of the backfield work for the Vikings in the absence of Aaron Jones. The Minnesota offensive line has struggled to start the season, blocking to just 1.77 yards before contact per attempt, while the Bengals have ceded just 1.97 yards before contact per attempt and 3.7 yards per carry. Mason is objectively a worse on-paper play than Walker.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. McCaffrey leads the league in XFP/G (24.1) on the backs of 17.5 carries per game and 8.5 targets per game through two weeks. He should remain the focal point of a San Francisco offense missing numerous key contributors in a non-prohibitive divisional matchup. It’s hard to poke holes in this one.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. JSN ranks third in XFP/R and seventh in XFP/G in one of the top receiver roles in the league. His 60.6% air yards share leads the league, as does his 41.1% target share and 0.44 TPRR, of pass-catchers with 10 or more targets. Again, we can’t really debate the strength of the play on paper.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Odunze ranks seventh in air yards share, 11th in target share, and is tied for the league lead in touchdowns with three, accounting for every receiving touchdown the Bears have scored this season. And he’s somehow still priced below teammate DJ Moore. Odunze is the clear alpha on this team, argue with a wall. Oh, and he happens to play in the game with the highest total this week.
