Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
It has now been five seasons since the league did away with the fourth preseason game, effectively truncating preparations for the regular season. Not only that, but teams have fewer padded practices in camp, players holding out or holding in is now a common occurrence, and most teams get very few drives with their starters in preseason. What I’m getting at is this: we have causal factors that clearly point to why scoring is down to begin the season. Teams are still working to find their identity, pass-catchers are still working on their connection with their quarterback, offensive lines are still working on their cohesion, and players are still working their way into peak form. And that’s before we even consider the changing dynamics of the yin-yang effect of offensive versus defensive coordinators. We saw an absurd rate of stacked boxes in Week 1 as defenses punch back against recent play calling trends.
You have heard us talk about the relationship between salary and building rosters for years, and how that relationship becomes dust in the wind once the first football is kicked. Raw points are what matter to us, and capturing raw points becomes that much more difficult early in the season.
There are only two games on the Week 2 main slate with a game total in the range we’re typically talking about when we’re singling out game environments. There are only two other games that approach that magic number (47.0). Salary is still relatively loose. There is only one player expected to garner 20%+ ownership. All of this comes together to form a slate that is wide open. So, how can we capture those raw points when the field is telling us they lack certainty on this slate? Keep that in mind as we continue our theoretical exploration of the slate ahead.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. We love McCaffrey. We want to play McCaffrey. Hell, I’ll probably play 100% McCaffrey in Week 2 (remember, that is a Single-Entry, 3-Max mindset). As I highlighted in the write-up of that game this week (and this is extremely important), the 49ers ran 76 offensive plays in Week 1 against an opponent that ranked second in pace of play. They now play an opponent that ranked first in pace of play, by almost four seconds per play. That is a massive margin. This Saints team wants to push the pace. We were told that all offseason and we saw that in each of head coach Kellen Moore’s stops over the previous five seasons, and then we saw that in Week 1. That is a solid boost to every game environment the Saints will find themselves in this season, and that continues in Week 2 against the 49ers. Not only that, McCaffrey is coming off a 32-opportunity game in which both George Kittle and Jauan Jennings departed with injury, Kittle now finds himself on injured reserve, and Jennings is listed as questionable after going DNP, DNP, limited (and he also missed most of camp and preseason with a calf issue/contract dispute). The volume must go somewhere, and it is highly likely to start with CMC.
Permanent Price Bump coming at the end of Week 2!
Lock in the lower price for life!
