Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
First off, we’re going to focus the brunt of the End Around on the six-game main slate this week, adding in some theoretical thoughts on the two-game Saturday slate and the three-game Sunday slate where it makes sense. On that note, one of the biggest edges we can generate this weekend is to use the new pieces of information from each game being played to steer our decisions for the remainder of whatever slate we’re focused on, with the goal being to compare the output of the players on our roster to the optimal production from said game.
For example, Puka Nacua is staring us in the face as the top pay-up option from the first game of the weekend. Did he go off at high ownership? Did he post a relative dud, and the touchdowns went to Davante Adams? Did Kyren Williams pop in two scores randomly? Was it Tyler Higbee that found paint twice? The way to conceptualize this process is to build rosters for the first game only. We’re optimal hunting (specifically on the two-game and three-game slates). How close was the actual production to the expected optimal from that game? Take that information and adjust the remainder of your builds to account for the actual outcome. If Puka Nacua “fails” at high salary and high ownership, which player is likeliest to benefit from that outcome? Since we expect the Rams to score points with a high degree of confidence, considering they have the slate’s highest Vegas implied team total, is it likelier that they completely dud, or is the percentage solution that someone else from the Rams simply accounted for the touchdowns? In this example, I want to ensure I have rosters in play on the six-game main slate that have only Higbee, or Matthew Stafford + Higbee + Adams, or only Kyren, or Rams D/ST + Higbee or Williams. A massive chunk of the rosters in play this weekend could be dead for a bink before we even get to the second game of the slate if Nacua fails, for whatever reason. Don’t let that be you! Build for optimal in the first game and adjust from there.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The PPR RB1 by over 12% higher than the RB2 (Bijan Robinson) in a win-and-advance playoff game. Sounds about right. CMC deserves to be up here.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Quite simply, one of my favorite “in a vacuum” plays on the slate from a range of outcomes versus salary perspective. The field got this one right, in my opinion.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The PPR WR1 by over 10% higher than the WR2 (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in a win-and-advance playoff game with the highest Vegas implied team total on the slate. Sounds about right. Puka deserves to be here. That said, there are significant theoretical aspects of the play considering the Rams play in the first game of the slate (covered above).
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Quite simply, one of my favorite “in a vacuum” plays on the slate from a range of outcomes versus salary perspective. The field got this one right, in my opinion.
