Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
I think this slate gives a false sense of security due to the three games that carry game totals north of 47.5 points. The Bengals and Bills have a game total of 53.0, but the pieces in that game require a very specific runout to be usable in a GPP setting. The Rams and Cardinals have a 47.5 game total, but the chances of the game turning into something we had to have are relatively low. I have much more trepidation about the Colts and Jaguars game because of the moving pieces that were discussed in that game’s write-up, primarily the injuries to Daniel Jones and Sauce Gardner. Because of my view on those three games, what games are we attacking this week? Where is the certainty? To me, the certainty is in individual players. That’s a very unique setup to the slate and requires us to do things slightly differently when generating leverage, which we will discuss further below.
Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Wilson saw target totals of 18 and 15 in the two games that Marvin Harrison Jr missed. MHJ is out this week, and he is joined by Greg Dortch on the sidelines. It is highly likely, given the recent trends from the Cardinals, that Wilson pierces double-digit targets against the Rams.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Cook has averaged 24.5 DK points per game in wins this season, hitting 20 points or higher in seven of eight wins. The Bills are 6-point favorites at home in the highest game total of the week.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Achane has the most robust workload in the league over the previous month of play, accounting for almost 50% (!!!) of the team’s opportunities since Week 10.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jacobs has not gone over 100 yards once this season and continues to see his workload limited when he has been on the injury report. He was limited on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury this week after being confined to 58% of the offensive snaps or fewer the previous four instances where he found himself on the injury report. I have my concerns.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Chase is never a “bad” play on paper, but his chances of returning a score you could not win without a relatively low against the Bills. Furthermore, it makes most sense theoretically to play Chase with Josh Allen as a way to capture bulk upside from two players that could put the slate out of reach, which eats up a ton of salary on a slate where the most certainty resides in the top tier of player pricing at running back.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. This appears to be the field’s “skeleton key” this week, but I caution against being overconfident in a highly volatile player. Mitchell’s range of outcomes is about as wide as we can find on the slate, a setup we typically want to be buying into at low ownership and largely avoiding at high ownership.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Watson plays on a low pass volume offense that typically spreads the football around, one that could also be getting back one of the pieces that have been missing in recent weeks. It appears the field is overrating the importance of Watson’s 10-target game last week.
