Thursday, Sep 21st

End Around 12.21.

Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max


We have one game with a total of over 50 points, and only three games with a total in the “magic range” of 47.0-49.5. From a macro perspective, we’d expect ownership to be rather spread out, and some of the top plays on the slate to go relatively unowned. What’s super interesting to me, from this perspective, is that four of the five players with legitimate paths to 40+ fantasy points play in two games. Hmmm.



Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Season-high of 21 running back opportunities on a team with a team total of just 22 points. The 4.52 net-adjusted line yards metric and the fact that the Falcons have allowed 28.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields are positives, as is his touchdown equity (seven touchdowns in his last seven games).


Restrictive chalk. Worked his way back up to a 90% snap rate last week and carries one of the best range of outcomes on the slate. The matchup on the ground is not ideal, yielding a 4.25 net-adjusted line yards metric, but the ceiling is very much intact.


Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Hasn’t seen more than 16 running back opportunities since Week 7, with only one game over 21 all season. Feels rather thin, to be honest, particularly considering a weak ceiling.


Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Jordan Howard is out this week, removing one piece of this curious backfield. That’s about where the positives end for me, honestly. Jordan Howard played only 17% of the offensive snaps in Week 11, which was Sanders’ first week back from injury, so it’s not like his absence suddenly unlocks a massive expected workload for Sanders. In that game, Sanders was in on 46% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps, while Boston Scott saw a 37% snap rate. This is going to remain a committee backfield, and the floor for Sanders is scary-low.


Restrictive chalk. The biggest thing dented by the presence of Mike Evans is Godwin’s touchdown equity, as Evans remains one of Tom Brady’s top targets near the end zone. Godwin has six games between five and eight targets this season, with four games of double-digit looks. Three of those four games came with Rob Gronkowski out of the lineup. The matchup is solid on paper, but the top-end of his range of outcomes may be a bit overweighted by the field.


Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. The clear on-paper correlated pairing with Godwin. Eight of 11 games with eight or fewer targets, and only a single game script that would see that expected range of targets increase (and it isn’t necessarily even the likeliest game flow).


Expansive chalk. The piece with the best point-per-dollar range of outcomes from this game. That said, we still haven’t seen Gronk increase his snap rate to his pre-injury range, meaning it might be thinner than we would like.


Expansive chalk. Pick-master Flex is back at quarterback for the Jets and the Texans are coming off a two-game stretch where they forced 10 takeaways. That said, those two games account for more than half of their total takeaways on the season (19). I find myself strangely okay with the chalk pay-down defense this week, as a 4x salary multiplier is all but guaranteed.

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