Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
I described the slate in The Oracle, so, in the interest of saving time by not repeating myself, I’ll post what I said there here.
“The Week 10 main slate is riddled with fragility, maybe more so than any slate we’ve seen this season, which is an interesting conclusion considering seven of the 10 games on the slate carry a game total of 46.5 points or higher. Pricing is also ruthlessly tight, with very little in the way of projectable value. That makes building rosters uncomfortable, which is something I absolutely love. Being comfortable being uncomfortable becomes an elite trait on a slate like this one, and I urge you to consider that when constructing your portfolio in Week 10.”
I will add that I’m tracking two specific cases of uncertainty that stand out on this slate: the status of D’Andre Swift and the weather in that same game. Each of those pieces can drastically shift my view of the slate, and we might not get full fidelity until Saturday evening or Sunday morning. If Swift is active, there remain very few projectable value pieces, keeping that level of uneasy feelings high when building. If the weather becomes prohibitive in Chicago (far less likely than public perception), some of my angles of accessing value could change. With that, let’s dive in, shall we!?
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. From the DFS+ of this game:
“I don’t think you can make many arguments against Rico Dowdle this week. He projects as the top point-per-dollar play on the slate, meaning Sims are going to love him, but that’s really the extent of the negatives here outside of “weird things happen in the NFL.” Excellent on-paper play.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Sims are gravitating towards Achane due to his high median expectation on a slate with few spots of directional certainty. We also must keep in mind that he has hit 20 DK points just three times this season and gone over 26.2 DK points just once. The level of dysfunction in the Miami offense is palpable. I prefer limiting Achane to game environment bets this week.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I broke Flowers down in the DFS+ of this game, saying, “The current state of the Ravens is such that we’re left effectively hunting for multiple touchdowns. Low volume through the air has left Flowers with only one game over 100 yards this season (back in Week 1), and he has all of one end zone target all season. So, I posit, why? Why is the field so intrigued with that profile this week? If I’m playing Flowers, it must be both paired with Jackson and another Ravens piece, with or without a piece from the Vikings.”
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. McCaffrey has the most secure and projectable roles in the league, at any position. No issues with riding him until the wheels fall off, regardless of the matchup. That said, the matchup could not possibly be worse for CMC against the defense ceding the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (14.9 DK points per game). Side note – the Rams are the only team yet to allow a rushing score through nine weeks.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. JSN is in an interesting spot. On one hand, the Cardinals are well equipped to limit a player like Smith-Njigba defensively. On the other hand, JSN has some of the wildest splits against Cover-4 you will ever see (pertinent due to the fact that the Cardinals lead the league in Cover-4 utilization), Tory Horton is out, and Rashid Shaheed just joined the team this week. My conclusion is that 30+ scores are likely to be sparser this week, making any player that has that upside within their range of outcomes highly valuable to us. JSN should remain in consideration for that reason alone.
