JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Derek Carr
Isiah Pacheco
Dameon Pierce
Chris Olave
Josh Downs
Kendrick Bourne
George Kittle
Brandon Powell
Vikings
Free
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
1st Place = 250 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 100 Edge Points
3rd Place = 75 Edge Points
4th Place = 50 Edge Points
5th Place = 25 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Much is made about George Kittle’s splits when Deebo is in the lineup vs out of the lineup for the 49ers offense, but CMC has also seen his ceiling spike when Deebo has missed games, with two of his three best games as a member of the 49ers coming on weeks Deebo missed. The Bengals rank 27th in DVOA against the run and 25th in adjusted line yards, and the 49ers are likely to lean heavily on CMC in this spot. As always, he’s unlikely to burn you for playing him, and his chances of pushing north of 30 DK points are higher than normal in this spot.
“Production from these offenses comes in the NEXT most likely way.”
Darnold will be popular, but it seems most people will be on Aiyuk or CMC as the stacking partner, and most people will be on Chase as the bring-back. This allows us to place the same bet the field will be placing (“The 49ers’ offense without Deebo produces a really nice score from someone, and the Bengals pass the ball a lot in this spot”), through different players than the field will be betting on.
If this stack hits, it’s not only adding points to your roster, but it’s taking away points from your competition. This is an ideal setup in DFS, making this a potentially powerful stack. The 49ers have faced the third most WR targets and allowed the third most WR catches (ninth most yards), as teams bias their offense toward the air in this matchup (while Cincy already ranks second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation). If it’s Higgins instead of Chase this week, and if Kittle has one of his monster non-Deebo games, you’ll be way ahead of the field.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
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This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Hurts || Mahomes || Lamar || Howell || Ridder || Mac || Carr
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
