Dummy Grid 6.25
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K
Bryce Young
Rico Dowdle
Javonte Williams
Tetairoa McMillan
Quentin Johnston
Jaylen Waddle
David Njoku
Chimere Dike
Titans
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Christian McCaffrey
I loved this stat from Lord Reebs (Sharp Football Analysis) :: From receiving stats alone, CMC is the WR6 on the season. He’s also a running back who gets almost all the carries for his team. As with Puka (below), we’re rostering CMC more for the consistent/sold haul of points than for the “had to have it” ceiling, but especially on thin slates like this one, there is plenty of value in just taking the locked-in points and figuring things out from there. In most scenarios, CMC isn’t scoring 35+ here; but also, in most scenarios, he’s not dropping below the low-20s (and of course, those monster scores are within his range of outcomes), making him a guy I’m not forcing, but who I’m also looking to play where I can.
Puka Nacua
We’ve been saying for weeks that Puka is the CMC of wide receivers; so on a week where I’m moving CMC up to the Blue Chip section, it makes sense for Puka to make his way up here as well. By the strictest definitions of these categories, both these guys are actually more Light Blue than True Blue Chip (and this week’s Light Blues are more Tier 1a Bonus, while the Tier 1 bonus guys at the bottom of the Player Grid are more Tier 1b Bonus); but sometimes, it’s just nice to have guys listed in the Blue Chip section, which has me putting both these guys up here this week. As I said with CMC: we’re rostering Puka more for the consistent/solid haul of points than for the “had to have it” ceiling, but especially on thin slates like this one, there is plenty of value in just taking the locked-in points and figuring things out from there. In most scenarios (with the Rams expected to control this game), Puka isn’t scoring 35+ here; but also, in most scenarios, he’s not dropping below the low-20s (and of course, those monster scores are within his range of outcomes), making him a guy I’m not forcing, but who I’m also looking to play where I can.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“JSN SZN?”
Trevor Lawrence + Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Story:
“JSN sees volume”
Why It Works:
JSN has basically been the same wide receiver as Puka Nacua this year on a per-route // per-target basis…with the difference being that JSN doesn’t see nearly the volume Puka sees, as the Seahawks are a relatively low-volume, run-based offense. In order for us to get the highest-end runout on JSN, we would ideally see his highest-end runout for volume…and the clearest way for that to happen is for the Jaguars to be scoring points and pushing the Seahawks to a more aggressive approach. Obviously, Darnold works with JSN as well (and I may have some of that in SE/3-Max this week), but because of the higher likelihood of volume from the Jags and the greater chance of rushing contributions from Lawrence, I like the idea of this pairing this week.
How It Works:
I would add a Trevor Lawrence stacking partner on almost every Lawrence roster, of course; but the core idea here is, “Playing JSN is good; playing JSN with a cheap QB from this game is even better.”
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Double Dip”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Pats + Maye
Because of the nature of the routes Diggs runs, he will typically need volume in order to return tourney-viable scores; and because of the way the Patriots run their offense, “Diggs seeing volume” is often going to mean “Drake Maye having opportunities to post a big game.” While Maye disappointed in the box score last week amidst a standout outing from Diggs, it’s comfortable to consider that an outlier, and to run a rule that says, “On 100% of Diggs rosters, play Drake Maye.”
While we’re on the topic of Drake Maye…
He has games this year of 15 and 17 DK points from rushing and touchdowns, so if he adds eight to 10 points from passing yards (200 to 250 yards) to a game like that, he lands a really nice score. Projections like him more than I do this week, which means he’ll be more popular than I’d like. The Saints are an offense that almost exclusively aims to march the field, while the Patriots are not big-play hunters. (As with any team, the Patriots take a few shots; but they are mostly hunting for mini-chunks, working short-area plays with easy upside for 8-12 yards and throwing to the intermediate areas of the field. With the Saints playing a style that naturally makes shootouts more difficult and the Patriots not hunting chunks as a regular part of the rhythm of their offense, Maye will have a harder time reaching 300+ yards, and will therefore have a harder time putting up a truly monster score.) All that said, 23-28 points is very much within range here, and if we’re asking “What wins the slate if Bryce Young disappoints,” this could very much be enough to be it.
The structure of this rule :: “On 100% of rosters with the locked player (Diggs), include a minimum of two players (Diggs and Maye) from this pool.”
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Bryce Young || Dak Prescott || >>—<< || Baker Mayfield || Mac Jones || Drake Maye || Justin Herbert || Trevor Lawrence
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
