Dummy Grid 15.23
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.4K
Sam Howell
Ezekiel Elliott
Kyren Williams
Noah Brown
Demario Douglas
Rashid Shaheed
Darren Waller
Logan Thomas
Giants
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 250 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 100 Edge Points
3rd Place = 75 Edge Points
4th Place = 50 Edge Points
5th Place = 25 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Rams
There won’t be many players on this slate scoring 25+ DK points…and it’s highly likely that the Rams produce one or two such scores. This makes me massively interested in this offense.
Matthew Stafford is clearly in play here (as is Sam Howell), and Kyren // Puka // Kupp will be rotated heavily through my builds. I may take a few swings on Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Higbee as well, and I’ll allocate some portion of my builds to Washington bring-backs, with Antonio Gibson my favorite option of the bunch, but with all of McLaurin // Dotson // Samuel // Thomas very much in the mix.
Here are some additional notes from my DFS Interpretations for this game:
- Washington has played 13 games this year, and eight of those games have had point totals of 50 or higher, while their opponent has scored 29 or more points in a stunning nine out of 13 games. NFL tape-grinders talked consistently throughout the first half of this season about how this was perhaps the best season of Stafford’s career, and how crazy it was that the stats didn’t tell this story — which is something we’ve been paying attention to on our end. Over the last few weeks, the stats have finally caught up, with Stafford throwing 10 touchdown passes across his last three games(!), including contests against the Ravens and the Browns. In case you’re looking at those numbers and worrying they might be fluky, they aren’t. Obviously, three to four touchdowns per game is outlandish, and won’t keep going forever; but for whatever it’s worth, it’s Stafford’s early-season numbers that are fluky, given how well he has been playing this year. This is a pristine spot for him and the Rams passing attack. Stafford-led stacks are fully in play, as are one-offs of Kyren, Puka, and Kupp. In fact, you could go so far as to say that it’s highly likely one of those three is on tourney-winning rosters this week, making a “mix and match” approach of these guys highly viable. I also like the idea of playing two guys from that pool, understanding that Rams skill position players could easily combine for 80+ DK points this week, which would create clear pathways for two of these guys to combine for 55+. I expect to have at least one Rams piece on every roster this week, with plenty of rosters that have two Rams pieces even without Stafford.
- The other side of this game is interesting, in that we can’t predict where the strong score will come from on the Washington side…but unlike the Rams wide receiver split or the 49ers pass catcher split, it’s not as if “the Washington piece that hits” is LIKELY to be a true “had to have it.” I put “likely” in caps because it is, of course, possible that a Washington piece posts a had-to-have-it, but they aren’t an offense that sets up in such a way that “mixing and matching across all our rosters” makes sense.
- That said, I’ll absolutely have some Howell rosters this week, and as we have explored in the past: when Howell hits, it’s often the case that two Washington pieces hit with him (in a price-considered manner). I probably won’t have many Washington one-offs, but I will have some Washington pieces opposite my Stafford builds, and I’ll have some Washington singles and doubles alongside my Howell.
49ers
There won’t be many players on this slate scoring 25+ DK points…and it’s highly likely that the 49ers produce one or two such scores. This makes me massively interested in this offense.
I’ll probably have a little more interest in Stafford than I’ll have in Purdy, as the Rams and Commanders have a higher chance of becoming an actual back-and-forth affair, thus increasing the highest end of Stafford’s ceiling (it’s also worth pointing out that if we played out this slate 100 times, Purdy would probably outscore Stafford more times than not; i.e., “Stafford’s absolute best games would probably be better than Purdy’s absolute best games, but Purdy would probably outscore Stafford more times than not”; do with that thought what you will), and unlike the Rams’ game, I won’t have much interest in the other side of the ball in this one. But same as the game listed above: “Mixing and matching” makes a lot of sense. I’ll be heavy 49ers this week.
Here are some additional notes from my DFS Interpretations for this game:
- To revisit what we laid out last week, with updated numbers…Here are the top scores, by week (starting from Week 1) for the 49ers’ three pass catchers:
- 35.9 // 22.1 // 28.1 // 23.8 // 27.7 // 11.6 (CLE) // 13.0 (offensive dud v MIN) // 26.9 // 23.6 // 29.6 // 22.4 // 38.8 // 37.0
- Throw out that two-game blip, and “selecting the correct pass catcher from San Francisco” has gotten you a WORST score of 22.1, with a remarkable seven games of 26.9 or more points, and three games of 35+. Chances are, one of these three pass catchers (Deebo // Aiyuk // Kittle) is going to post a really strong score, and it won’t be surprising — on a thin slate like this — if “nailing the right pass catcher from the 49ers” is required to win a tourney.
- While it’s always dangerous to “try to predict who will hit from this offense” (the week Kittle went 3-67-3, he was the worst play of the bunch on paper), we can note that the Cardinals don’t face a ton of tight end targets, as they are so bad against wide receivers that teams attack in that way instead. This makes “Aiyuk or Deebo” the likelier pathway to the top, though I’ll continue to mix and match these three guys across my builds as I’ve been doing for weeks.
- CMC, of course, is overpriced for his role (as we’ve discussed: he no longer sees a dramatically bigger workload and pass game role than other running backs in the league, and is instead valuable because of how efficient he is in this offense), but is NOT overpriced for his ceiling, as he showed the last time these teams met when he put up 51.7 DK points. The Cardinals have allowed the second most RB rushing yards and the second most RB touchdowns in the league. CMC is highly unlikely to “fail” in this spot, and his high end is a true “had to have it” game.
- I’ll have interest in playing CMC solo, CMC plus a pass catcher, a pass catcher solo, and Purdy with any of those combinations.
- I’ll probably largely avoid the Cardinals, even on builds that lean heavily on the 49ers.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“Pass Smash,” Volume I
Stafford + Puka + Kupp + Antonio Gibson
Story:
“The Rams score a lot of points…and score their points through the air.”
Why It Works:
The Rams will be popular, but Kyren Williams could easily have more ownership than Puka and Kupp combined, and very few rosters will have these two together. If the Rams score 80 to 90 DK points from their skill position players and Kyren finds his way to only about 15 of those, there’s a good chance we see 55 to 65 DK points from these two pass catchers, creating nice points and nice leverage. Antonio Gibson would likely see more work through the air for the Commanders if both Kupp and Puka are hitting, giving us a nice all-around setup.
How It Works:
If this play hits, you’re likely to be far enough ahead of the field that you won’t have to worry too heavily about strategy across other spots on your roster.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Pass Smash,” Volume II
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
“Not Tyreek”
Demario Douglas and Ezekiel Elliott are not Tyreek Hill…but they do cost $9.7k in combined salary ($200 behind Tyreek), and they should combine for 14+ carries and 13+ targets, which is a tremendous workload for that salary spent. Both players are going to be popular this week, and both players have clear paths to failure (you know — something about being in a bad offense and playing a good defense), but one of the ways to maximize the payoff if things go well is to play these two together. Lots of rosters will have one. Lots of rosters will have the other. Not many rosters will have the two together. This rule says, “On at least 8% of rosters, play these two players together.”
“At Least One Ram”
We probably won’t get many 20+ point DK scores from this slate…and it’s almost certain that the Rams will produce at least one such score, with a pretty good shot at them producing two such scores. (We also probably won’t get many 25+ point DK scores from this slate…and it’s highly likely that the Rams produce at least one of these.) With this in mind, I like a rule of rostering at least one Rams piece on every roster this week.
This rule says, “On 100% of rosters, play at least one and as many as two players from this pool.”
“At Least One 49er”
We probably won’t get many 20+ point DK scores from this slate…and it’s almost certain that the 49ers will produce at least one such score, with a pretty good shot at them producing two such scores. (We also probably won’t get many 25+ point DK scores from this slate…and it’s highly likely that the 49ers produce at least one of these.) With this in mind, I like a rule of rostering at least one 49ers piece on every roster this week.
This rule says, “On 100% of rosters, play at least one and as many as two players from this pool.”
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
(Double-double lines (“|| ||”) signify a tier shift for me, in terms of my level of interest)
Stafford || Howell || || Purdy || || Love || Josh Allen || || Dak
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
